HuffPo: The New Organizers, Part 1: What's really behind Obama's ground game Zack Exley: "nside the Obama campaign, almost without anyone noticing, an insurgent generation of organizers has built the Progressive movement a brand new and potentially durable people's organization, in a dozen states, rooted at the neighborhood level." [Permalink]
NYT: The Next President -- ESSENTIAL "This is one of those moments in history when it is worth pausing to reflect on the basic facts:
An American with the name Barack Hussein Obama, the son of a white woman and a black man he barely knew, raised by his grandparents far outside the stream of American power and wealth, has been elected the 44th president of the United States." [Permalink]
Politico: Why Obama won "Obama won on his own terms, strategically and symbolically. He rolled up a series of contested states, from Colorado to Virginia, long out of Democratic reach. And his victory reflected the accuracy of his vision of a reshaped country. Racism, much discussed, turned out to be a footnote, and African-American turnout was not unusually high. Instead, Obama drew his strength from an array of racially mixed, growing areas around cities such as Orlando, Fla., Washington, Indianapolis and Columbus, Ohio, on his way to at least 334 electoral votes." [Permalink]
Politico: The Obama Revolution "The Democrats’ moment with Obama, as a brilliant campaigner confronts the challenges of governance, could also prove fleeting. For now, the results -- in their breadth across a continent -- suggest seismic change that goes far beyond Obama's 4 percent margin in the popular vote. " [Permalink]
TIme: All That's Left is to Vote, Even for Obama "'Sometimes, even early on, I thought about governing and the challenges that await the next president,' he said. 'And that's usually what keeps me up at night -- not the prospect of losing.'" [Permalink]
The Caucus: Endgame: Nov. 3 Senator Barack Obama’s sweeping exploration of race in America ['A More Perfect Union'], delivered in March, in the midst of the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. controversy. More than 5.1 million views, despite its length -- 37 minutes, 39 seconds -- marking YouTube's emergence as a vehicle for substantive discourse, not just silly clips. [Permalink]
Time: A Long Campaign, And a Changed Barack Obama "Of course, the Obama campaign will be remembered for spectacles like Obama's stadium speech at the Democratic convention and his equally massive appearance in Berlin. But in fact, his campaign just as often deliberately chose not to maximize Obama's crowd appeal. During the primaries, where retail politics was premium, they focused on house parties and ice cream socials, concerned that Obama's celebrity status might put off the famously demanding Iowa and New Hampshire voters." [Permalink]
Observer (UK): Barack Obama's impressive road to the White House "People do lie to pollsters. Pollsters can screw up their measures of voting intention. Voting intentions can change in the frenetic last furlong before election day. The man himself constantly cautions the crowds at his final rallies to take nothing for granted. But the world now expects that the world will get what it wants: President Barack Obama." [Permalink]
Salon: Obama's winning argument "What Obama needs to explain, over and over again, is that Democratic economic programs have succeeded in promoting growth precisely because they distribute national wealth more widely than the Republican tradition of trickle-down. The numbers have told the story for decades -- and the statistics detailing the Clinton administration's success and the Bush administration's failure have only reinforced the narrative." [Permalink]
NYT: Obama is up; liberals fret "'I wrote an e-mail to a friend and said, ''I’m afraid to put this in writing, but I’m really excited about the way this is going,''' Ms. Bellet said.
Within minutes, the phone rang; her friend was very worried about Mr. Obama’s prospects. ''Don’t say that!'' the friend said. ''No, no, no. What were you thinking? We can’t go there yet!''" [Permalink]
Rove: Don't trust the polls In the WSJ, Karl Rove warns the reader against ascribing credence to the polling numbers in light of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. [Permalink]
WSJ: Obama and the Politics of Crowds If on the morning of November 5 Sen. Obama turns out to have lost, his supporters will be mighty disappointed. If it turns out he won, they will be disappointed too. [Permalink]
FiveThirtyEight: Election Night Preview with Dan Rather Generations meet: the venerable Dan Rather interviews this year's internet rockstar, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on what to expect come Tuesday. Killer quote: if Indiana comes up too close to call, it will be "an early night" for McCain. Great video. [Permalink]
Donklephant: Another Sucker for Obama "This afternoon, I voted. I cast a ballot that was about 80% Republican, including votes for my Republican Senator and Republican Representative.
But for president, I voted for Barack Obama." [Permalink]
National Journal: GOP's Horror Sequel Is Almost A Wrap "For a time it was thought that perhaps some huge foreign policy event or crisis could refocus public attention away from the current 100 percent concentration on the economy. Perhaps Russia invading the Ukraine, North Korean firing a missile off the coast of Japan, Israel deciding to take out a nuclear facility in Iran or something else might dilute the unrelenting rain on the heads of Republicans. But now, even an apparent U.S. special forces raid into Syria is hardly drawing notice. This cake looks baked." [Permalink]
PhysOrg: Astronauts To Vote From Space "Commander Edward Michael Fincke and Flight Engineer and Science Officer Greg Chamitoff are living and working onboard the International Space Station. Though they are 220 miles above Earth and orbiting at 17,500 miles per hour, they will still be able to participate in the upcoming election. A 1997 bill passed by Texas legislators sets up a technical procedure for astronauts -- nearly all of whom live in Houston -- to vote from space. " [Permalink]
Marist: Clinton fence, mended The latest Marist shows a little closure on the supposed Clinton rift: 62% of registered voters in New York State say Senator Hillary Clinton is doing either an excellent or good job, and according to this blog, she gets a 91% positive approval rating from African-Americans. [Permalink]
Crowley: Still Sweating Crowley isn't relaxing just yet: "My immediate concern is twofold: That McCain is getting some traction with his liberal/socialist/redistributionist charge--the WaPo tracker shows McCain narrowing the gap on the economy over the last week--and, in light of this, that Obama is striking his high-note a few days too early." [Permalink]
Time: Why the New Virginia Is Leaning Toward Obama "The national headquarters of John McCain's campaign are in northern Virginia, near the condo where he stays when he is working across the river in Washington. But McCain didn't get around to actually campaigning in the most pivotal part of this pivotal state -- exurban Prince William County -- until the weekend of Oct. 18. That's when he realized he was running about 10 points behind in a state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1964." [Permalink]
Nat'l Review: John McCain -- The Agony of a Gadfly Another pre-post-mortem: "This is the McCain paradox: No other Republican candidate had a character and background -- as a courageously independent spirit -- better suited to making the presidential campaign competitive this year. But perhaps no Republican candidate was so poorly suited to the task of running a presidential race." [Permalink]
Time: Against All Odds, McCain Still Sees a Final Comeback "When Bob Dole realized he wasn't going to win against President Bill Clinton in 1996, Dole started campaigning in states that were of little help to him but where he could assist Republicans trying to hold on to their majorities in Congress. That kind of pivot hasn't happened in this race, though over the weekend conservative writer David Frum openly called on McCain to do just that for the good of the party." [Permalink]
New Yorker: McCain has run out of ideas "The problem for John McCain, Sarah Palin, and the Republican Party is that the bottom was scraped clean long before it dropped out. Back when the polls were nip and tuck [...] Obama had already been accused of betraying the troops, wanting to teach kindergartners all about sex, favoring infanticide, and being a friend of terrorists and terrorism. What was left?" (Spoiler: it's 'socialism'.) [Permalink]
He also advises Republicans to "stock up on your whiskey and vodka for November 4th, but try not to drink yourself into a coma". Wait, vodka? Isn't that a socialist drink? [Permalink]
TNR: The Ballot Blues Leon Wieseltier's cautious endorsement: "I dread the prospect of Obama's West Wing education in foreign policy: even when he spoke well about these matters in the debates, it all sounded so new to him, so light. He must not mistake the global adulation of his person with the end of anti-Americanism." [Permalink]
Observer (UK): America is showing Europe the way again - ESSENTIAL Keith Richburg: "[I]t's difficult, if not impossible, to imagine a Barack Obama emerging in Europe soon. [...] What's more, many Europeans can't even bring themselves to call their minority residents what they are - citizens. They are still often referred to as 'immigrants' or 'outsiders', even if they were born in the country, speak no other language, know no other home." [Permalink]
Stumper: McCain's Closing Argument "After struggling for weeks to present a coherent case against Barack Obama, John McCain has finally found a closing argument -- and he's sticking to it. The surprising thing, at least in light of his earlier sallies, may be that it's worth sticking to." [Permalink]
Saturday, October 25
ABC News: Breaking Down the Battleground States "ABC News has looked at several factors to assess how those electoral votes may fall on Election Day -- including reporting from the campaigns themselves, national party officials, outside groups, House and Senate party committees, state parties and polls. Analysis shows that Republican candidate John McCain's support in these states -- all of which went to George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004 -- may not be enough." [Permalink]
Larry David: Waiting for Nov. 4th "The one concession I've made to maintain some form of sanity is that I've taken to censoring my news, just like the old Soviet Union. The citizenry (me) only gets to read and listen to what I deem appropriate for its health and well-being. Sure, there are times when the system breaks down. Michele Bachmann got through my radar this week, right before bedtime. That's not supposed to happen."
RCP: Long National Nightmare -- ESSENTIAL Steven Stark shares a, well, stark crystal ball scenario where that one guy wins, you know, that Senator from Arizona. Funny in a way, but rooted in reality -- of course McCain can still win, and Stark points to real-world articles and publications to lend his dream emphasis. [Permalink]
Thursday, October 23
RCP: Battleground Virginia Kyle Trygstad on Virginia's role as a likely 2008 bellwether: "If McCain is losing Virginia on election night we can all go to bed early." [Permalink]
Politico: GOP blame game In an article that sees John F. Harris, Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin team up, the 'circular firing squad' McCain camp (ouch!) is described. [Permalink]
Time: Four Ways McCain Went Wrong Spoiler: He Drove into a House Republican Wall; Sarah Palin Needed a Crash Course She Never Got; He Stuck with Attacks That Depended on Dominating the News Cycles; He Stopped Having Fun. [Permalink]
ABC/WaPo: Vote by 2004 outcome A nice couple of pie charts (scroll down) buried in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll: the poll numbers broken down by states won by Kerry and Bush, respectively, in 2004. [Permalink]
CBS2 Chicago: Election Night In Grant Park: Construction Begins "Construction is underway for a massive stage in Chicago where Barack Obama could declare victory on election night. Tens of thousands are expected to gather in Grant Park just 13 days from now. One way or another, that huge crowd will witness history." [Permalink]
Republican Jewish Coalition ad: "Concerned about Obama?" -- ESSENTIAL Jewish interest group ad reportedly airing in Florida calls Obama's judgment into question; but, tellingly, does not call on the viewer for voting McCain. The only call to action in the ad is to phone Obama's senatorial office and plead with him not to sit down with Ahmedinejad, stopping just short of adding, "when he's President." [Permalink]
CNN: Many in McCain camp think NM, IA, CO are "gone" In a must-see clip from CNN Monday night, John King says most in the top of the McCain campaign believe New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado are no longer worth fighting for. The remaining strategy is a risky push for Florida, Nevada and Pennsylvania. [Permalink]
Orlando Sentinel: GOP insiders: McCain's Florida campaign "botched", "Dukakis-like" "One who has advised the McCain organization called it the 'most poorly run presidential campaign of the last 25 years. It's truly Dukakis-like,' referring to the hapless 1988 campaign of Democrat Michael Dukakis.
'They have absolutely no strategy for winning,' said the veteran operative, who did not want to be identified criticizing a candidate he supports. 'I see [...] no rhyme or reason to this campaign or its scheduling or its planning.'" [Permalink]
AFP: Tide of voters could swamp US electoral system Recent history provides ample indications for vulnerabilities in the US voting system's ability to cope with large numbers of voters. If in two weeks the turnout turns out to be as huge as anticipated, how will the system cope? [Permalink]
YouTube: The North Carolina Obama Straight Flip Attention Tar Heels: in NC, voting for a straight party ticket doesn't include your vote for President. So choose your presidential vote, then a straight party ticket (if you want to), then flip the ballot for non-partisan races. This instructional video shows you how to do it for a straight Obama-Democratic vote. [Permalink]
Politico: Obama set to break fundraising records "Barack Obama has raised more money for his presidential bid than all candidates combined raised in the open 2000 presidential race and is on track to top the joint sum raised by President Bush and John F. Kerry in 2004." [Permalink]
Newsweek: It's Not Easy Bein' Blue Despite accusations from the right that Obama would govern as an extreme progressive, the United States remains a center-right country. [Permalink]
FOX News: McCain ready for potential Nov. 4 loss McCain tells Chris Wallace: "Oh, sure. I mean, I don’t dwell on it. But look. I've had a wonderful life. I have to go back and live in Arizona, and be in the United States Senate representing them, and with a wonderful family, and daughters and sons that I'm so proud of, and a — and a life that's been blessed[.]" [Permalink]
Jonathan Martin: Nice timing Martin notes that Obama's first appearance after the endorsement by General Powell is in Fayetteville, NC, a strong military town in a state where Obama is playing offense. [Permalink]
WaPo: The Speech That Could Close the Deal David Ignatius: "he country is looking for two conflicting qualities in the next president -- change and stability. Obama certainly embodies the former. [...] The stability theme is a harder one for Obama, but it's likely to be crucial in bringing home the victory the pollsters are predicting. The country is frightened, more now than it was a few months ago. People want reassurance that Obama, for all his talk about change, isn't going to overturn the apple cart. A dream television spot in the final week would be a fireside chat between Obama and his sometime economic adviser Warren Buffett. That would close the deal, I suspect." [Permalink]
NYT: Nov. 5, 2008 With a strong majority in both houses of Congress and up to three Supreme Court appointments, a President Obama could be one of the most powerful officeholders in recent history. [Permalink]
"I asked Palin whether she'd do things differently if she could repeat those weeks. She answered by silently mouthing 'yes.' When two aides--we were on a McCain-Palin bus with staff and security--said 'yes' aloud, she chimed in, 'Yes yes, yes, yes.'" [Permalink]
Ben Smith: Hating Obama I try to refrain from posting these "Someone really, really doesn't like Obama" videos because, well, they are essentially incidents. And there can be found equal loons on the left as well. But this is a convincing sampling. And they really, really don't like Obama. [Permalink]
"I love the Waldorf Astoria -- I hear that from the doorstep, you can see all the way to the Russian Tea Room." "I was not born in a manger -- I was born on Krypton [...] and sent to save planet Earth." [Permalink]
"Biggest weakness? I guess I might be a little too awesome." "My middle name is actually 'Steve'." [Permalink]
LAT: Protestant Latinos favor Obama, poll says "'The shift is a direct result of the immigration reform debacle,' said the Rev. Samuel Rodriguez, president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, one of the four groups sponsoring the survey. 'This is why Latino evangelicals are shifting to Barack Obama.'" [Permalink]
Politico: McCain's puzzling electoral map strategy With the McCain campaign pulling out of Michigan but continuing to campaign in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire -- which today seem Democratic lockups -- do they know something we don't? [Permalink]
zombietime: The Left's Big Blunder In-depth examination of the 'meta-campaign' surrounding the general probama atmosphere in mainstream media and blogs alike is slightly paranoid, but very thorough and makes some interesting points. [Permalink]
Politico: Nation could face short Election Night Finally, an article on the question that has kept your humble editor occupied for weeks now: if the election turns out not to be close, when will the networks call the election? [Permalink]
Salon: The 60th senator The War Room speculates: If the supposed Democratic wave does extend to the Senate, where might a filibuster-proofing sixtieth seat come from? [Permalink]
GQ: Who It Takes Great photo series of candidates, former candidates, spouses, advisors, and other campaign operatives. [Permalink]
Ambinder: McCain at the Al Smith Dinner Selected quotes from what has been a comedic/cathartic highlight of the campaign so far. Must-see when there is video, but for now it's a must-read. [Permalink]
Pollster: Getting to 270 for McCain "No matter what, McCain has a long shot to get to 270. But The road has to go through Ohio and Florida and both states are looking better for him than any others he must win. What he is doing in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is a mystery to me." [Permalink]
CS Mon: Obama gaining among rural voters "Barack Obama is gaining support in the rural, conservative town of McArthur, Ohio, reflecting nationwide trends in which the Illinois senator has been consolidating support among independents and in some traditional Republican strongholds." [Permalink]
The Hill: Obama's first 100 days start early Obama and Congress looking ahead: "Obama's unveiling of an economic recovery package on Monday that was closely coordinated with leaders on Capitol Hill amid the nation's financial crisis represented a passing of the torch for the Democratic Party." [Permalink]
Salon: Which John McCain will show up to debate? Great preview of the final debate: "With his campaign on the rocks, McCain could hit reset one more time and abandon civility in his final showdown with Barack Obama." [Permalink]
Tuesday, October 14
FiveThirtyEight: "Dead girl, live boy territory" "McCain now has to go on a run of his own, a large enough run to wipe at least 8 points off of Obama's lead, and perhaps more like 9 or 10 to cover his inferior position in the Electoral College and the votes that Obama is banking in early and absentee balloting. It is imperative that McCain does not just draw tomorrow night's debate, does not just win a victory on points, but emerges with a resounding victory, the sort that leaves the spin room gasping for air. Failing that, we are getting into dead girl, live boy territory." [Permalink]
Alaska Daily News: Palin's Orwellian spin "Sarah Palin's reaction to the Legislature's Troopergate report is an embarrassment to Alaskans and the nation. [...] Her response is either astoundingly ignorant or downright Orwellian." [Permalink]
The Trail: Questioning Obama "It is hard to think of a new president who inherited such a rapidly altered landscape. Franklin Roosevelt inherited a country in crisis, but the crash on Wall Street began years before he was elected in 1932. The 44th president's world has been turned upside down in a matter of months, and literally on the eve of the election." [Permalink]
Wolfson: A PreMortem for The McCain Campaign "[T]he choices that Senator McCain has made during this race will impact the margin of his defeat and the fortunes of other Republicans on the ballot. Today it's worth considering what Senator McCain could have done differently." [Permalink]
Quinnipiac: Obama battleground state leads 'may be insurmountable' "'Sen. Obama's leads in these four battleground states are as large as they have been the entire campaign. Those margins may be insurmountable barring a reversal that has never been seen before in the modern era in which polling monitors public opinion throughout the campaign,' said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute." [Permalink]
GigaOM: Obama campaigning in Xbox 360 video games "'I can confirm that the Obama campaign has paid for in-game advertising in Burnout,' Holly Rockwood, director of corporate communications at Electronic Arts, the game's publisher, told me via email[.]" [Permalink]
WaPo: Examining the so-called "Bradley Effect" (2) "Kohut theorizes that polling discrepancies do not come from respondents who lie, but from people who decline to participate in polls. That is a growing problem, with studies showing that as many as half the people contacted for polls refuse to participate." [Permalink]
NYT: Examining the so-called "Bradley Effect" (1) "Pollsters and political scientists say concern about a Bradley effect -- some call it a Wilder effect or a Dinkins effect, and plenty call it a theory in search of data -- is misplaced. It obscures what they argue is the more important point: there are plenty of ways that race complicates polling." [Permalink]
NY Post: McCain blew it "John McCain blew it. Barack Obama will win the election, and there may be nothing that McCain can do to stop it." [Permalink]
Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.: Attacks on ACORN Based Not on Facts, But on Fear of 1.3 Million Poor People Registering "Obviously it's not right for a fake 'Tony Romo' to be registered in Las Vegas, so someone was probably playing a not-very-funny joke, or trying to pad their registration numbers to get paid a little more money rather than doing the hard work in the hot Nevada sun that helping voters to register requires, or maybe a provocateur was setting up ACORN for some bad press. But remember the basic point--it's not voter fraud unless someone shows up at the voting booth on election day and tries to pass himself off as 'Tony Romo.' And who would try to do that? No one is going to be that stupid." [Permalink]
Alaska Daily News: "Very much appreciating being cleared" In a bizarre conference call, Gov. Palin claims to be "very pleased to be cleared of [...] any hint of any kind of unethical activity there", while the Branchflower report clearly states she violated a statute of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act. [Permalink]
RCP: Largest spread so far for Obama Obama hits a spread of +7.6 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, making for his largest lead over McCain so far and besting his previous high of +7.5 points in late June. [Permalink]
Saturday, October 11
RCP: Obama reaches polling high Sen. Obama has the support of 49.7% of the electorate in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, his highest level of support so far. [Permalink]
YouTube: Sen. McCain calls for respect (ESSENTIAL) Ignore the somewhat gung-ho ("gotcha"?) framing by TPM: this short clip pulled from CNN will prove one of the most important and memorable moments of the campaign. The narrative for the endgame appears set:
Stock markets worldwide plunge, investor confidence is at a historic low, and Sen. Obama is soaring in the polls. Sen. McCain, apparently in an attempt to stem the tide, responds by casting doubts upon Obama's character and by openly calling for examination of his alleged ties to former Weatherman Bill Ayers (which are widely considered tenuous at best).
Meanwhile, McCain-Palin rallies take a turn for the grim as supporters grow more vocal and caustic in their opposition of Obama, with occasional (and isolated) threats to his person even reported in places. Now, the Obama-Biden campaign challenges McCain to "say it to [Obama's] face", and the McCain campaign's new tone meets with harsh criticism from the press.
Which brings us to the video: McCain apparently sees no option but to backtrack, and here reassures his audience of Obama's character and calls for respectful discourse.
Twenty-four days is a long time in politics, and it's important to keep in mind that Obama by no means has this in the bag. But watching this video, it's hard not to infer a sense of resignation in John McCain's voice. [Permalink]
Friday, October 10
Christopher Buckley: Obama could be a "great" leader (ESSENTIAL) In a stellar -- if somewhat highfalutin -- endorsement, the late William F. Buckley's son lays out the justification for his first Democratic vote ever: calling McCain's recent attacks "mean-spirited and pointless" and strongly criticizing the Palin selection, the younger Buckley endorses Sen. Obama as a candidate of necessity.
"He is, it seems clear enough, what the historical moment seems to be calling for."
Essential reading. [Permalink]
Nat'l Journal: Going Obama's Way "If voters stay focused on the economy, this contest could soon be out of McCain's reach. If their attention returns to national security in the next week or so, he could still come back." [Permalink]
WSJ: Presto, change-o! "And now, America, we introduce the Great Obama! The world's most gifted political magician! A thing of wonder. A thing of awe. Just watch him defy politics, economics, even gravity!" [Permalink]
Pollster: 29 Days to Go and a Transformed Election "The economic situation has virtually ended John McCain's presidential aspirations and no amount of tactical maneuvering in the final 29 days is likely to change that equation." [Permalink]
David Frum: Going negative won't save McCain now "Anybody who imagines that an election can be won under these circumstances by banging on about William Ayers and Jeremiah Wright is -- to put it mildly -- severely under-estimating the electoral importance of pocketbook issues." [Permalink]
Daily Kos: Richard Trumka speech to the USW In one of the most passionate speeches of the cycle so far, AFL-CIO Secretary-Treasurer delivers a stirring speech to the United Steelworkers convention condemning racism. [Permalink]
NYT: Obama - Palin With Republicans fantasizing about Sen. McCain ditching Gov. Palin in a final Hail Mary pass, Frank Rich suggest that if Palin is the GOP's "last hope for victory", he should flip the order of the ticket. Palin-McCain '08! [Permalink]
Politico: McCain's fate now hangs on three states "McCain figures that winning one of those three big remaining swing states [Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania], plus those he considers safe, would put him 10 shy of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win." [Permalink]
Electicker: Best of the VP Debate liveblogs Ambinder (The Atlantic): "[T]he topline here is that, when it comes to worrying about Palin, the McCain campaign can now exhale ... (one GOPer e-mailed: 'We live to fight another day.')"
Seelye (The Caucus/NYT): "'Gwen,' Mr. Biden says slowly and gravely. 'No one in the United States Senate has been a better friend of Israel than Joe Biden.' [...] Ms. Palin is the one who sounds slightly condescending, saying she respects Mr. Biden's support for Israel. (Remember, the pre-debate commentators said Mr. Biden was the one who had to be careful about appearing condescending.)"
Cillizza (The Fix/WaPo): "No idea what Biden is saying right now. Defending his Senate votes is not what he wants to be doing..."
Marshall (TPM): "Didn't Palin just get the name wrong of our Army commander in Afghanistan. His name is David D. McKiernan. Who's the McClellan she was talking about? She pretty clearly misstated what he said, but she seems not even to know who he is." [Permalink]
Time: Biden's Debate Challenge: Keeping His Mouth Shut "If Barack Obama had consulted 100 wise Democrats about selecting Joe Biden as his running mate, asking them, 'What would be your biggest concern?,' he would have received 100 identical responses.
In the words of Robert Draper's classic GQ profile of the Delaware Senator: "Joe Biden Can't Shut Up." [Permalink]
Salon: Is Sarah Palin just playing dumb? The War Room asks: "Could the halting, bumbling Sarah Palin of the last few weeks be part of an elaborate rope-a-dope scheme to lower expectations for her performance tonight?" [Permalink]
Alternet: Sarah Palin -- master of the non-answer Andrew Halcro who served two terms on the Alaska State House as a Republican and ran for Governor as an independent in 2006 shares some insight on Gov. Palin's debate record. [Permalink]
Time: Poll - Obama Makes Gains with Women, Hits New High "Obama now leads McCain 50%-43% overall, up from 46%-41% before the parties' conventions a month ago. Obama's support is not just broader but sturdier; 23% of McCain supporters said they might change their mind, while only 15% of Obama's said they could be persuaded to switch." [Permalink]
Slate: The Poetry of Sarah Palin "In campaign interviews, the governor, mother, and maverick GOP vice presidential candidate has chosen to bypass the media filter and speak directly to fans through her intensely personal verses, spoken poems that drill into the vagaries of modern life as if they were oil deposits beneath a government-protected tundra." [Permalink]
Politico: Palin's accent takes center stage "Hard as it may be for political junkies to believe, Thursday's debate will be the first time a lot of Americans will actually hear Sarah Palin speak - and they’re in for something distinctly different. It's not just her habit of referencing moose hunting or pit bull cosmetology that distinguishes the governor. It's that accent." [Permalink]
New Yorker: Foreign Countries Hendrik Hertzberg: "[This excerpt from Couric's interview with Palin] seems to be a case of incoherence of thought leading to incoherence of syntax. Pronouns wander in search of antecedents like Arctic explorers in a blinding snowstorm." [Permalink]
The Atlantic: On strategy and tactics James Fallows:
"Some examples are so familiar as to need no explanation: McCain choosing the ten-day tactical 'bounce' from the surprise choice of Sarah Palin, in exchange for the enormous strategic risk in choosing an un-vetted and now obviously unqualified running mate. Or McCain rolling the dice with his threat to boycott the debate -- and then, once on stage, appearing to be only mildly interested in the financial-bailout deal that 72 hours earlier was the stated reason for overturning all agreements about the debates." [Permalink]
Monday, September 29
CBS News: Video of the McCain/Palin interview "Sen. John McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin were in Ohio Monday for a campaign rally. In their first joint interview, CBS News anchor Katie Couric asked them about a statement Palin made the other day, because it didn't seem to square with her running mate's policies in the war on terror in Pakistan." [Permalink]
Politico: For candidates, it's all about Ohio "With only five weeks until Election Day, Barack Obama spent Saturday in two Republican states that Democrat John Kerry never seriously contested in 2004: North Carolina and Virginia. " [Permalink]
Wednesday, September 24
Politico: Bush, McCain, Obama to meet on bailout "[President] Bush, in fact, did call for [a bipartisan] meeting Wednesday in his speech, but it was unclear what would be accomplished with presidential politics coming into what are already difficult talks." [Permalink]
Politico: McCain plan a 'stunt' or 'smart move' "Opinion typically broke sharply along partisan lines, suggesting that McCain’s strategy could deepen dissent over the Bush administration's proposed $700 billion economic bailout for financial institutions, rather than smoothing over differences in Congress." [Permalink]
"In the early weeks of the general-election campaign, a consensus has grown in the political community - a consensus that ranges from practitioners like Karl Rove to commentators like, well, me - that John McCain has allowed his campaign to slip the normal bounds of political propriety." [Permalink]
"Mr. McCain's once easygoing if irreverent campaign presence - endearing to crowds, though often the kind of undisciplined excursions that landed him in the gaffe doghouse - has been put out to pasture. He takes far fewer chances, meaning there are fewer risque jokes, zingers at a familiar face in the crowd, provocative observations on policy or politics, or exercises in self-derogatory humor. By every appearance, this Mr. McCain is, or at least is struggling to be, disciplined and on message in a way befitting of American politics today, if not quite befitting of the McCain of yesterday." [Permalink]
Electicker: Distance (video) Some perspective on Sarah Palin's claim that Russia's proximity to Alaska helps her foreign policy credentials. An Electicker original video. [Permalink]
Politico: On the stump, Obama moves past hope "Barack Obama sounds more like a man trying to shake a rain cloud these days, dispensing a teeth-clenching, I-get-your-pain stump speech in town after town that offers only snippets of the unbridled optimism that long permeated his campaign pitch." [Permalink]
NYT: Candidates Strive to Break Through Media Fog "In this Wild West [campaign] atmosphere, Mr. McCain's campaign was able to get attention by leaping on a colloquial remark that Mr. Obama made about 'putting lipstick on a pig' - he was referring to Mr. McCain attempting to present himself as an agent of change - and the campaign charged that he had meant that as an attack on Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, Mr. McCain's running mate. [A]ssociates said that at the very least, they were able to distract attention from Mr. Obama. Yet at the end of the day no one was really sure how much those charges broke through or mattered to regular voters." [Permalink]
NYT: Obama Plans Sharper Tone as Party Frets It seems like everyone and their mother has an opinion on what Obama's next step should be, but:
"'We're sensitive to the fluid dynamics of the campaign, but we have a game plan and a strategy,' said Mr. Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe. 'We're familiar with this. And I'm sure between now and Nov. 4 there will be another period of hand-wringing and bed-wetting. It comes with the territory.'" [Permalink]
WaPo: The Anger Factor In the wake of Lipstickgate, Howard Kurtz summarizes how the heat in the debate is quickly being turned up. [Permalink]
TIME: Sarah Palin's Myth of America - ESSENTIAL Joe Klein lucidly explains
"So Obama faces an uphill struggle between now and Nov. 4. He has no personal anecdotes to match Palin's mooseburgers. His story of a boy whose father came from Kenya and mother from Kansas takes place in an America not yet mythologized, a country that is struggling to be born - a multiracial country whose greatest cultural and economic strength is its diversity."
Essential reading. [Permalink]
WCSH6: John McCain interview The Portland (ME) local station asks McCain some tough questions and gets some very evasive answers. What are Palin's national security credentials? "Energy. She knows more about energy than probably anyone else in the United States of America." And yes, the 'Alaska is next to Russia' line is in there as well. [Permalink]
Wednesday, September 10
Matt Damon: "A bad Disney movie" I'm not too big on 'Here's celebrity X's musings on candidate Y' links, but Matt Damon makes a salient point in well under two minutes on what little we would know about a possible President Palin. [Permalink]
FOX News Embeds: McCain embraces the staged rally "For a candidate who once railed against 'stale soundbites, staged rallies and over-managed messages,' John McCain seems to have turned over a new leaf. Today marks the four-week anniversary since McCain held his last press conference (8/13 in Birmingham, MI) and three weeks since his last public town hall meeting (8/20 in Las Cruces, NM). McCain's new campaign strategy: staged rallies with thousands of supporters." [Permalink]
TNR The Plank: Obama's Polldrums John B. Judis: "I expect that by November, as [Palin's] novelty wears off and as voters focus more on her qualifications, she will have proven to be either of no effect or a liability to McCain. [...] In the absence of a major misstep by McCain or, perhaps, Palin, I would not expect Obama to enjoy again the kind of margin he enjoyed in late June and early July. This is going to be a close election. Obama is going to have trouble winning Ohio (with its white working class) and Virginia (with its pro-military seacoast), two states on which the campaign has counted. He may have to win Colorado, New Mexico, and New Hampshire to take the election." [Permalink]
Politico: Autumn Angst - Dems fret about Obama "'On the one hand, it could be a temporary reshuffling of the deck,' [field organizer Steve Rosenthal] added. 'And on the other hand, it underscores the deep-seated problems we have in this race with race, class and culture.'" [Permalink]
Newsweek: McCain-Palin Distorts Our Finding "A McCain-Palin ad has FactCheck.org calling Obama's attacks on Palin 'absolutely false' and 'misleading.' That's what we said, but it wasn't about Obama." [Permalink]
WaPo: Five myths about voters' not-so informed choice '5 Myths About Those Civic-Minded, Deeply Informed Voters' -- spoiler: Voters are not that informed, but Bill O'Reilly's audience knows just as much as Jon Stewart's, facts don't help, better education doesn't make for better informed voters, and young voters aren't too informed either. Now get off my lawn! [Permalink]
AP: Omaha's electoral vote draws Obama's attention Nebraska, like Maine, splits its electoral votes. All of them (in NE) have gone to the GOP candidate in recent history. But Obama is eyeing the one vote from Omaha's congressional district. [Permalink]
Politico: 7 things to watch as the fall race kicks off Spoiler: whether the bad economy helps Obama, whether Palin will prove a fad, whether Biden makes it through the VP debate looking good, the presidential debates, the role of the Clintons, Reverend Wright, and McCain's legendary temper. [Permalink]
Allahpundit: No, Obama did not 'admit' to being a Muslim on ABC On Hot Air, Allahpundit's gracious and highly commendable plea not to conjure up fictitious smears by taking video clips out of context. It ends with a jab at Sullivan for his Palin smears, but that's wholly justified IMO. Excellent piece. [Permalink]
Politico: Doh!: Top eight gaffes of the campaign "The modern media is brutally unforgiving with its microphones and video cameras: Any word, any image, at any moment can haunt a candidate for a lifetime. [...] Here is Politico's list of the top eight gaffes that are virtually certain to haunt John McCain and Barack Obama until Election Day." [Permalink]
Jeff Strater: Sen. Clinton to campaign for Obama/Biden Hillary will be campaigning for the Obama/Biden ticket this next week in Florida. Several local Florida news outlets are announcing the visit. The Obama campaign is calling these events the "Change we Need Rally with Sen. Hillary Clinton". [Permalink]
First Read: Biden sneaks out to teach class "With Cheney-esque stealth, Biden made a surprise appearance this morning at the Constitutional law class he had been scheduled to teach before his selection as Barack Obama's running mate. " [Permalink]
Politico: Palin reignites culture wars "The campaign of Democrat Barack Obama put up an ad in at least seven key states Tuesday lambasting GOP nominee-to-be John McCain as an enemy of abortion rights.
At the Republican convention here, former Tenn. Sen. Fred Thompson took a shot at Obama’s stand in favor of legal abortion. " [Permalink]
Ben Smith: Palin raises $8 million -- for Obama Obama spokesman Bill Burton says, "Sarah Palin's attacks have rallied our supporters in ways we never expected. And we fully expect John McCain's attacks tonight to help us make our grass-roots organization even stronger." [Permalink]
TNR: Republicans Heading For an Iceberg Spoiler: "If [McCain] doesn't move away from the militant right--and if the questions about Palin don't subside--he is likely to lose the election, and even to lose it big." [Permalink]
Tuesday, September 2
Ben Smith: Obama to appear on O'Reilly Thursday night "The move is timed to counterprogram John McCain's speech to the Republican National Convention, which is likely to drive Fox's ratings sky-high and to give Obama access to a conservative audience." [Permalink]
The Atlantic: The "Eagleton Scenario" "Could Sarah Palin become the first running mate since Thomas Eagleton in 1972 to be dropped from a major-party ticket? Joshua Green offers a look at how such a scenario would unfold." [Permalink]
Slate: How to replace a running mate Jacob Leibenluft -- writing for Slate's Explainer -- answers the question: "What happens if someone nominated for President or Vice President resigns from the ticket or dies before Election Day?" [Permalink]
Palintology: 2006 Palin debate video Interesting footage from the 2006 AK gubernatorial race. Looks like 'divide and conquer' is an effective strategy in a three-way debate. In Alaska, anyway. [Permalink]
Slate: How Palin made the GOP change its mind about presidential qualifications. "The whole 'experience' debate is silly [but] it's a hardy perennial: If your opponent is a governor, you accuse him or her of lacking foreign-policy experience. If he or she is a member of Congress, you say this person has never run anything. And if, by any chance, your opponent has done both, you say that he or she is a 'professional politician.' When Republicans aren't complaining about someone's lack of experience, they are calling for term limits." [Permalink]
Bill Kristol: A Star Is Born? In an NYT op-ed, Kristol acknowledges the riskiness of McCain's Veep gambit, but also posits that it might be a boon in the end. [Permalink]
YouTube: Campbell Brown grills McCain spokesman on CNN Brown puts McCain campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds' feet to the fire in this compelling clip. We learn that Bounds is unable or unwilling to name a single executive decision by Gov. Palin, and Bounds learns that contrary to his beliefs, the Governor of Alaska has no decision-making authority in equipping the AK National Guard. [Permalink]
Mudflats: Alaska politics blog A lowly Alaskan blog is thrust into the spotlight by McCain's unlikely Veep pick. Very critical of Palin, but worth the read for an informed AK insider's look. [Permalink]
The One Blog: The Palin gamble "To be clear, the thrust of the Dems' argument will not be that Palin is too inexperienced; it will be that McCain is being disingenuous when he argues that Obama is." [Permalink]
Science debate 2008: Sen. Obama's answers "I will restore the basic principle that government decisions should be based on the best- available, scientifically-valid evidence and not on the ideological predispositions of agency officials or political appointees. More broadly, I am committed to creating a transparent and connected democracy, using cutting-edge technologies to provide a new level of transparency, accountability, and participation for America's citizens. Policies must be determined using a process that builds on the long tradition of open debate that has characterized progress in science, including review by individuals who might bring new information or contrasting views."
(via Politicalfilter) [Permalink]
TNR: An Astonishingly Arrogant V.P. Selection "[S]urely a campaign that has been charged with being too naïve to manage rogue state dictators can have a bit of fun with the idea that a one-time Miss Congeniality could effectively face down Vladimir Putin, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, or Kim Jong Il." [Permalink]
fivethirtyeight: Sarah Palin Thoughts, Revised and Extended While I'm recovering still from McCain's bombshell pick, here are Nate's thoughts.
"Suppose, for instance, that McCain is 2 points down in the election. Suppose furthermore than there is a 50 percent chance that Palin boosts his standing by 3 points, and a 50 percent chance that she makes a major gaffe that costs McCain 10 points. That's actually a pretty good gamble for McCain to take, since he'd wind up winning the election 50 percent of the time (by one point) and getting blown out the other 50 percent of the time (by 12 points) -- better than losing the election by 2 points 100 percent of the time." [Permalink]
Politico: McCain to address Obama directly in TV ad tonight In light of this, VP speculation skyrockets. Oddly, Lieberman's and Pawlenty's stock seem to rise in the wake at the cost of Romney's, even though Mitt had been the clear front runner for a few weeks now. [Permalink]
Politico: Black perspectives on Obama's nomination "To call this a historic moment feels like understatement. Obama's nomination represents a sea change, a psychological shift in a country that still struggles with the painful and complicated legacy of slavery." [Permalink]
Video: Roll call as seen from the nosebleeds 8-minute video from way up in the stands gives an excellent perspective on the expertly orchestrated moment that transpired just now, complete with Sen. Clinton as deus ex machina.
WARNING: **LOUD** digital audio clipping from noise in the hall - and rather poor picture quality. Still, a great vantage point, and uploaded insanely quickly by zennie62. [Permalink]
The Fix: Five things Hillary needs to do tonight I tend to dislike "X must do Y"-style opinioneering -- but Cillizza's top five seems to hit the mark. Money quote (and also the last line of the piece):
"And, the more gracious Clinton is tonight, the easier it is for Obama to return the favor on Thursday and, in doing so, start the healing process in earnest." [Permalink]
Rep. Dennis Kucinich: "Wake Up America" - remarks to the DNC "If there was an Olympics for misleading, mismanaging and misappropriating, this administration would take the gold. World records for violations of national and international laws. They want another four-year term to continue to alienate our allies, spend our children's inheritance and hollow out our economy." [Permalink]
Ted Sorensen: Remarks to the DNC Former advisor and speechwriter to JFK: "I have long dreamed that our party would produce another president matching John F. Kennedy’s intellect and integrity, his capacity to inspire justice at home and peace around the world —- and this week my dream is coming true. Once in a lifetime, said the poet, hope and history meet in one extraordinary man and movement —- I thank the good Lord that I've lived long enough to meet and help such men twice in my lifetime, John Kennedy and Barack Obama." [Permalink]
NYT: DNC seating plan See which delegations got premium floor seats, and which states and territories have to make do in the nosebleed section. Spoiler: Delaware got moved up, natch. [Permalink]
NYT: Delegates for Clinton Back Obama, but Show Concerns "'Clinton and Obama were close together all the time, and Hillary didn't make it [...] It was easy to switch because I feel we need to get a Democrat in because the Republicans have really messed up the country.'" [Permalink]
HuffPo - Sandy Goodman: What Happens To Biden's Senate Seat If He Becomes VP "[...] Biden's successor would be named by Delaware's 73-year-old Democratic governor, Ruth Ann Minner. [I]f Biden is chosen vice president and resigns his Senate seat before her term runs out in January, she's sure to appoint another Democrat to succeed him, according to James Soles, a retired professor of political science at the University of Delaware." [Permalink]
Slate: How Michelle's speech will humanize Barack Obama Liza Mundy explains how on Monday, Michelle Obama will face the unenviable task of emphasizing her husband's personal story while reassuring Americans that she and Barack are just like everybody else. [Permalink]
Politico: Biden for dummies "Over that long career, Biden has depicted in many ways: A grieving young senator, an undisciplined campaigner, a foreign policy wonk, a happy warrior presidential candidate waging a quixotic campaign. If nothing else, Saturday’s announcement that he will join the Democratic ticket is a remarkable high point for someone who is the political equivalent of a marathon runner -- Barack Obama was 11 years old when Biden was first elected to the Senate." [Permalink]
The Caucus: The 3 A.M. Text Message "A user named Bonnie said the early morning text was the 'only way I’d ever dream about Joe Biden.' And Pat Byrne, a Twitter user in Detroit, changed their cellphone settings so the text message would specifically 'wake me up at night.'
'Unless you are Barack Obama, please don’t text me in the middle of the night,' the user added." [Permalink]
TNR: What the Hell Is Taking So Long? "You can let the suspense build and build if you've got a Hillary or a Gore socked away somewhere. Possibly a Biden or a Webb (or some unorthodox pick like a general or a Republican). But you'd better not come with Jack Reed or Evan Bayh after toying with people for over a week." [Permalink]
Politico: In VP timing, Obama defies pols' expectations "In dragging out the announcement of his vice-presidential nominee to almost the eve of the Democratic National Convention, Barack Obama has at once demonstrated his willingness to defy conventional political expectations -- and to hold the news media in his thrall while doing it." [Permalink]
RCP: McCain raises the bar In memo, McCain camp tries to raise expectations by suggesting Obama should get a 16 point bump out of the convention. [Permalink]
Thursday, August 21
PoliticalFilter: Community Weblog PoliticalFilter is a community blog about politics (US and international). It's sort of a spin-off from Metafilter. "Anyone, regardless of political affiliation, can sign up for an account at PoliticalFilter and then make blog posts on political subjects or comment on other blog posts." [Permalink]
Time: Obama Sharpens the Message "Ironically, the very things that helped Obama win the Democratic nomination are unsettling his party now. Democrats fear that his lofty style of politics will be little match for a Republican opponent who is looking to be tougher than they had thought, and they worry that his message of hope -- which has drawn crowds in the tens of thousands and inspired a record primary turnout -- is not specific enough for people who are trying to figure out how to pay for their next tank of gas and hold on to their homes." [Permalink]
MSNBC: Biden the clear frontrunner for Veep With Biden in the spotlight, NBC highlights the Delaware Senator's strengths and weaknesses.
"'Joe won't be afraid to get in McCain's face, which is what Obama needs,' said one non-contender source. Others have pointed out to Obama that this is why Biden would be hard to control as vice president. But maybe Obama has decided to worry about that later." [Permalink]
Spaceref: Obama's space program Speeding next-gen vehicle development while retaining the Shuttle option, embracing human space exploration while also conducting robot missions and emphasizing earth-oriented research. Looking forward while hedging one's bets. [Permalink]
DCW: Clinton and the roll call vote DemConWatch makes a lucid suggestion:
"Here's how it could go: Time it to end at 10:05 - just after the networks come on the air. Obama goes over the top - everyone celebrates - great visuals. Then, the NY delegation asks to be recognized. A certain former president, and superdelegate, asks that the nomination of Obama be made unanimous. The motion passes, and a great celebration of party unity follows. Five minutes of that, and a voice comes on the loudspeaker, saying, ladies and gentlemen, the next vice president of the United States, and the VP nominee comes to the podium." [Permalink]
HuffPo - Paul Hunt: Obama, The Change Candidate Abroad, Too Electicker's first humble submission to the Huffington Post.
"Until recently, when people asked me why I'm so engrossed in an election being contested in a country thousands of miles from mine, my stock reply was 'Well, I heard it's a pretty important country.' A pithy yet truthful rejoinder, I thought -- now I realize it was a lame cop-out. Or at the least, it's hardly the most compelling reason for non-Americans to pay attention to this election.
So here's a better one." [Permalink]
Tuesday, August 12
Slate: The Lives of Barack Obama Interactive timeline lists the Senator's previous residences and occupations, and tallies the number of times they are mentioned in his own words and in news coverage. [Permalink]
DNC: Release on Convention's Nightly Themes And they are:
Monday, August 25 -- One Nation
Monday’s headline prime-time speaker will be Michelle Obama.
Tuesday, August 26 -- Renewing America's Promise
Senator Hillary Clinton will be the headline prime-time speaker on Tuesday night.
Wednesday, August 27 -- Securing America's Future
The Vice Presidential Acceptance Speech
The headline prime-time speaker on Wednesday will be Barack Obama's Vice Presidential Nominee.
Thursday, August 28 -- Change You Can Believe In
Barack Obama's Acceptance Speech [Permalink]
Sunday, August 10
Photo: Suckerpunch You know how they say a picture is worth a thousand words?
I have no idea as to its origin - it looks like a magazine scan is all I can tell - but this is seriously making the rounds online, as in this Digg post for one. Its historical (Senatorial?) context will conceivably be pointed out by someone soon - but expect it to be referred to often in the weeks to come.
A photo like this, you just can't make it up. [Permalink]
Barack Obama: VP alert via email/text message Another clever marketing/database-building strategy from the Obama camp: if you sign up on the campaign's website you are promised a heads-up via email and/or text message as soon as Sen. Obama announces his running mate. [Permalink]
Politico: 'Invasion of Georgia' a '3 a.m. moment' "When the North Caucasus slid into war Thursday night, it presented John McCain and Barack Obama with a true '3 a.m. moment,' and their responses to the crisis suggested dramatic differences in how each candidate, as president, would lead America in moments of international crisis. " [Permalink]
Newsweek: The 'Process' President "The election will not be won on [Obama's] energy policy or health-care policy. If he wins, it will be because voters want to fix the way we make decisions." [Permalink]
Financial Times: Democratic jitters as Obama heads for Hawaii "With polls showing him neck-and-neck with John McCain at a stage at which many Democrats expected he would be in the clear lead, they worry about the kind of stray image that helped to defeat John Kerry in 2004." [Permalink]
The Trail: The Clinton Question Dan Balz explores President Clinton's hypothermic stance towards Senator Obama: "You can argue a lot of things, or discuss or debate them into the wee hours of the night, but a brief television interview is not the time or place to do so. " [Permalink]
Wednesday, August 6
Kos: McCain vs. McCain dansac describes a more aggressive Obama at today's town hall in Indiana: McCain's lobbyist ties and Bushist voting record are all there, and the kicker: "In the coming days it's going to be interesting to see this coming debate between John McCain and... John McCain!" [Permalink]
Politico: The biggest flip-flops of 2008 (so far) "Politico, in conjunction with PolitiFact, a partnership between the St. Petersburg (Fla.) Times and Congressional Quarterly, sorts through the charges to get to the truth of five key flip-flop allegations." [Permalink]
538: Election flowchart Nate Silver has become an authority of sorts on the mathematically more advanced aspects of this election: or, you could say, he's this cycle's resident numbers guy. (Whatever happened to Tanenbaum?)
Anyhow, he presents a three-point sequence of Election Day events that I feel compelled to share:
"1. Can McCain win Michigan? If so, McCain is very likely to win the election.
2. If McCain loses Michigan, can Obama win Ohio? If so, Obama is very likely to win the election.
3. If Ohio and Michigan are split, can Obama win Colorado or Virginia? If so, Obama is very likely to win the election, having essentially to pick off just one or two smaller states West of the Mississippi (Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana) while perhaps also having to defend New Hampshire." [Permalink]
NYT Mag: Is Obama the End of Black Politics? - ESSENTIAL Must-read, thorough examination of what Obama's candidacy means to black communities. It veers off into inexplicable directions at times ("And as in the rest of the political world, this rebellion is happening on the Internet, driven by ordinary Americans with laptops and a surprising amount of free time"), but more importantly it offers seldom-seen lucidity like in this passage:
"For most black Americans, Obama's candidacy represented a kind of racial milestone, the natural next phase of a 50-year movement. But for Michael Nutter, the reverse was also true: not supporting Obama's candidacy marked a kind of progress, too. [...] I asked Nutter if he found it insulting to have me come barging into his office, demanding to know why he didn't pick the black guy. [...] 'It's presumptuous. It demonstrates a continuation of this notion that the African-American community, unlike any other, is completely monolithic [...] I don't remember seeing John Kerry on TV and anybody saying to him, "I can’t believe you’re not for Hillary Clinton." Why?' [Permalink]
Barack Obama: Text of energy speech "You won't hear me say this too often, but I couldn't agree more with the explanation that Senator McCain offered a few weeks ago. He said, 'Our dangerous dependence on foreign oil has been thirty years in the making, and was caused by the failure of politicians in Washington to think long-term about the future of the country.'
What Senator McCain neglected to mention was that during those thirty years, he was in Washington for twenty-six of them. " [Permalink]
Wkly Std: Barack Obama's Lost Years Conservative commentator Stanley Kurtz pieces together an ideological image of Obama's writings in Chicago papers over the years. [Permalink]
Youtube: Hillary and the convention ballot "What we want to have happen is for Senator Obama to be nominated by a unified convention of Democrats, and as I have said the best way (...) to do that is to have a strategy so that my delegates feel like they had a role and that their legitimacy has been validated, and that (...) there is a catharsis, and (...) everybody can go 'Great, let's go out and win.'" [Permalink]
538 ESSENTIAL: Sebelius Shell Game? Required reading: more on the "the buzz on Kaine means we should keep an eye on Sebelius" theory. Nate Silver makes a level-headed argument on signal vs. noise and how much, if anything, we should read into the campaign reverse psych strategy we're conjuring up in our very own heads. [Permalink]
Ambinder: Kaine & Sebelius Ambinder is right: if Kaine is supposed to be the running mate in waiting, the silence from the Sebelius camp is deafening in comparison. [Permalink]
RCP: ESSENTIAL - Our First Transnational President? Rich Lowry's well-written op-ed at first masquerades as a puff piece but quickly unmasks itself as a damning critique of Sen. Obama while concisely defining the fine line between global interests and American values he has to walk. Essential reading. [Permalink]
Ambinder: Sebelius, Kaine, Bayh, Biden Marc Ambinder mulls over the alleged Obama VP shortlist: "(T)he way to look at these names, I think, is to analyze what picking each would say about the Obama presidency and what he expects in a vice president." [Permalink]
Monday, July 28
Youtube: Kaine endorses Obama in Spanish In light of the growing speculation about the Virginia Governor's ranking on the shortlist, here's a shaky but amusing video of Tim Kaine singing the praises of Obama en Español. [Permalink]
Sunday, July 27
NYT Op-Ed: How Obama Became Acting President "It almost seems like a gag worthy of 'Borat': A smooth-talking rookie senator with an exotic name passes himself off as the incumbent American president to credulous foreigners. But (what drew heads of state and talking heads) was the raw power Mr. Obama has amassed: the power to start shaping events and the power to move markets." [Permalink]
Friday, July 25
Spiegel: No. 44 Has Spoken Opinion: "Anyone who saw Barack Obama at Berlin's Siegessäule on Thursday could recognize that this man will become the 44th president of the United States. He is more than ambitious -- he wants to lay claim to become the president of the world." [Permalink]
The Page: RNC announces convention schedule "The party announces the block schedule for their convention in St. Paul starting Sept. 1. The festivities will kick off at 3:30 pm and go until 11 pm ET (with a 30-min break at 7:30 pm)." [Permalink]
Spiegel: Obama camp 'frustrated' over Berlin "Spiegel has learned that the Obama team is frustrated by the controversy surrounding the candidate's Germany visit, with some asking why the trip is so difficult for the Germans to comprehend." [Permalink]
Tuesday, July 22
Spiegel: Berlin Reopens World Cup 'Fan Mile' for Obama "Don't bring bags or placards, but make sure to smile for the camera! Barack Obama doesn't want to let anything steal the show at his Berlin debut, where the streets and the Victory Column are being transformed into a 'fan mile' for the US Democratic Party's presidential candidate." [Permalink]
Time: Never Underestimate McCain, But ... Michael Grundwald argues that the nation's yearning for change, coupled with McCain's inability (thus far) to find a voice, amount to a 'perfect storm' against the Republican candidate. [Permalink]
Spiegel: Will Europe's Adulation of Obama Soon End? A summary of German press on the Senator's upcoming visit. "Germans are infatuated with the Democrat, particularly because he isn't George W. Bush. But German commentators doubt the love affair will survive this week's foreign policy speech." [Permalink]
Kos: Obama, one million Germans, and history MBNYC explains how almost no location in Berlin is free from symbolic ambiguity. "Obama has chosen a location that speaks to a history we're well advised to understand and remember. In practical terms, he also picked the one spot in Berlin that can accommodate the huge crowds inspired by his candidacy and by the idea that America is turning over a new leaf. As to the larger symbolism, there are few places I can think of in Berlin better suited for a repudiation of America's own recent war of conquest and aggression than the German Empire's shattered monument to its own futile triumphs." [Permalink]
NYT: Veepstakes in plain sight "Mr. Obama is likely to announce his choice the week before the Democratic convention begins on Aug. 25, party officials said. Mr. McCain is leaning toward announcing his as soon as the Democratic convention is over, though associates said he had not ruled out making the announcement before the Olympics begin on Aug. 8." [Permalink]
Ambinder: Al-Maliki agrees with Obama - it's a big deal "This could be one of those unexpected events that forever changes the way the world perceives an issue. Iraq's Prime Minister agrees with Obama, and there's no wiggle room or fudge factor. This puts John McCain in an extremely precarious spot: what's left to argue?" [Permalink]
NYT: The Buzz About a McCain-Romney Ticket "These days Mr. Romney, a telegenic former Massachusetts governor, is serving as a wingman extraordinaire for Mr. McCain on cable television. (...) Now Mr. Romney is attracting perhaps more buzz than anyone else as a potential running mate for the man he once derided. " [Permalink]
WaPo: McCain to Focus On Domestic Issues "As Sen. Barack Obama takes a highly publicized trip abroad over the next week, Sen. John McCain plans to highlight his commitment to the nation's domestic challenges in stops across the country." [Permalink]
Electicker: OBAMA'S TRAVEL SCHEDULE Here's what we've been able to piece together from news reports and other public sources. All of this is of course tentative and subject to change.
Sat Jul 19: Sen. Obama arrives in Afghanistan Saturday, after a short stopover in Kuwait, with Sens. Hagel (R-NE) and Reed (D-RI) as part of a Congressional delegation.
Tue Jul 22: The Senator is expected to visit Israel, where he will meet with Pres. Peres, PM Olmert, Ministers Barak of Defense and Livni of Foreign Affairs and opposition leader Netanyahu. Additionally, he is slated to visit Jordan and meet with King Abdullah II.
Wed Jul 23: The Haaretz report cited above also quotes Palestinian peace negotiator Saeb Erekat as saying Sen. Obama will meet with Pres. Mahmoud Abbas and PM Salam Fayyad of the Palestinian National Authority in Ramallah on this day. However, further meetings with Israeli leaders on this day cannot be ruled out.
Thu Jul 24: In the morning, Sen. Obama will arrive at Berlin's Tegel Airport for what is claimed to be the overseas trip's main PR event. During the day he will meet with Chancellor Merkel of Germany and Foreign Minister Steinmeier. At 7 PM, he is scheduled to speak for up to an hour about Euro-American relations at the Victory Column in the Tiergarten park, with the Brandenburg Gate behind the crowd, which will likely flood Strasse des 17. Juni. Sen. Obama will spend the night in Berlin.
Berliner Zeitung (DE): More Obama Berlin details The gist: Obama will speak for up to an hour - stage to be set up with Victory Column behind the Senator and the Brandenburg Gate behind the audience, allowing video shots of both - Large video screens to be erected along 17th June St. [Permalink]
RCP: Laugh, Obama, Laugh "Barack Obama's levity-free reaction to the now-famous New Yorker cartoon leaves one reluctantly wondering: Is he humor-challenged?," Kathleen Parker asks. And, "the wicked retort is invariably more effective than righteous indignation." [Permalink]
Times (UK): Hysteria alert: Barack Obama starts world tour "(T)here's something a bit deeper, a bit more meaningful about the enthusiasm that will be on display next week. Part of it is doubtless that Europeans simply think they recognise one of their own - the closest thing America can produce to a social democrat. (...) The rise of Senator Obama is a reminder of what the rest of the world still admires - sometimes very grudgingly - about America: a constant capacity to renew itself." [Permalink]
Rolling Stone: Kanye, Wyclef, N.E.R.D. at convention "On the celebrity front, Scarlett Johansson, Ben Affleck, Warren Beatty and Annette Bening are all planning on appearing. Both Coors and Anheuser-Busch are sponsoring, so a good time will be had by all." [Permalink]
Seattle P-I: The candidates that roared Marianne Means in the Post-Intelligencer: "(Obama) originally planned a photo opportunity in front of Berlin's Brandenburg gate, which [...] stands not far from the city hall where President John F. Kennedy in 1963 made his dramatic declaration 'Ich bin ein Berliner' before a cheering, weeping crowd of more than 100,000.
I was there, and I have never experienced such a public wave of emotion -- the Berlin airlift of 1948-1949 was fresh in memory and the tensions in the beleaguered city were still high. [...] What has Obama ever done for Berlin, or Germany? A stranger not yet a president high-handedly usurping a nation's premier symbol of unity and peace for selfish campaign purposes is not a very smart way to improve our relations with that foreign country." [Permalink]
Cologne Stadt-Anzeiger (DE): Obama to speak at Victory Column Government sources in Berlin say he will speak at the famous Tiergarten monument during the evening of the 24th, according to the paper. He will allegedly meet with Chancellor Merkel earlier in the day while also making stops at the Jewish Museum and the US Embassy, the latter providing a Brandenburg Gate photo op after all. [Permalink]
Wednesday, July 16
TPM: Bayh as Veep? Sen. Bayh might be a tough sell:
"That's because in 2003, Bayh was an honorary co-chair of the neocon pro-war Committee for the Liberation of Iraq -- a group he joined along with none other than John McCain and Joe Lieberman, according to a press release from during the run-up to the invasion." [Permalink]
Politico: 'Idiot's Veto' not worth the cost Roger Simon on the New Yorker cover flap: "If a single person might not get a joke, then you should not tell the joke. All humor (and everything else) should be reduced to the lowest common denominator just to make sure nobody misunderstands anything.
This would, of course, remove a lot of the humor from life." [Permalink]
Observer (UK): The world is waiting to love America again "An Obama presidency would certainly make many nations feel better about American leadership. He has expressed a willingness to listen more to allies and talk more to potential foes. He has taken domestic political fire for saying he would open a dialogue with Tehran. But he has also shown a reflex to make hawkish statements. His mixture of dialogue and firmness would make a refreshing change." [Permalink]
WaPo: Anchoring Obama's Trip US network anchors are gearing up to interview the Senator in Europe:
"The Washington Post has learned that Brian Williams, Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric will travel overseas next week, lured by the prospect of interviews with the presumed Democratic candidate. That means the NBC, ABC and CBS newscasts will originate from stops on the trip and undoubtedly play it up." [Permalink]
Tuesday, July 15
CBS: Will Romney's Combative Style Net VP Nod? "Since dropping out of the Republican race in February, he has gone from being John McCain's fiercest rival to one of the Arizona senator's most visible surrogates. What was inconceivable during the height of their primary battles, the prospect of a McCain/Romney ticket, is now a real possibility." [Permalink]
Politico: Hill Democrats miffed at Obama 'After a brief bout of Obamamania, some Capitol Hill Democrats have begun to complain privately that Barack Obama’s presidential campaign is insular, uncooperative and inattentive to their hopes for a broad Democratic victory in November. ' [Permalink]
Politico: 5 presidential campaign cash myths 527s don't matter that much, McCain's not really running a publicly financed campaign for the general election, he did not break campaign finance law in the primary, Lobbyists and PACs don't matter that much either, and Hillary Clinton's debt doesn't matter that much either. There, now you don't have to read the article. [Permalink]
WSJ: Hagel to Join Obama on Iraq Trip 'The buzz this week that Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska is planning to join Sen. Barack Obama on an up-coming visit to Iraq is correct, two sources with knowledge of the trip confirmed Friday.' [Permalink]
The Trail: Obama's Accidental Sister Souljah Moment The Washington Post blog posits Jesse Jackson handed the Democractic candidate his Sister Souljah moment: 'Barack Obama leads a charmed life. He finally had his Sister Souljah moment and didn't even have to show up. Jesse Jackson did it for him solo.' [Permalink]
Thursday, July 10
Guardian: In praise of... Rathaus Schoeneberg Is the town square at the former West Berlin city hall - where JFK gave his famous 'Ich bin ein Berliner' speech and which is now named John-F.-Kennedy-Platz - the obvious compromise for what people are starting to refer to as 'Brandenburg Gate'? [Permalink]
Ambinder: Obama's Europe Trip, Risks And Benefits 'Obama's trip to Europe will be a huge event (...) If Obama does speak at the Brandenburg gate -- and it's unclear whether he will at this point -- you could envision a crowd of more than 200,000 watching and cheering him. (...) His trip has to be flawless, message-wise, tone-wise and in its execution.' [Permalink]
ESSENTIAL - NYT: The Audacity of Listening Gail Collins provides a powerful companion piece to last week's 'New and Not Improved' editorial. 'When an extremely intelligent politician tells you over and over and over that he is tired of the take-no-prisoners politics of the last several decades, that he is going to get things done and build a 'new consensus,' he is trying to explain that he is all about compromise.' [Permalink]
Wednesday, July 9
NYT: Prospect of Obama at Brandenburg Gate Divides German Politicians With the pillars of the Brandenburg Gate looming in the background, tens of thousands of adoring Berliners turn out to greet Senator Barack Obama with wild cheering. It may have seemed like the perfect campaign stop on the candidate’s highly anticipated European tour, an ideal way to burnish his foreign policy credentials.
Instead, the plan — widely dissected in the German news media but never confirmed by the Obama campaign — has exposed fissures in the German government, with the conservative chancellor, Angela Merkel, strongly criticizing the proposal and the Social-Democratic vice chancellor and foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, speaking out in favor of it. The ensuing uproar here has underscored the hazards for Mr. Obama in taking his presidential campaign overseas. [Permalink]
Tuesday, July 8
Politico: Networks may limit convention coverage 'Major television networks are considering curtailing coverage of the Democratic National Convention after Monday’s announcement that Barack Obama will accept his party's nomination in a Denver stadium. According to several broadcast executives, the networks will still cover all the major speeches. But beyond that, all options are open as they look for savings to balance out the anticipated costs surrounding the stadium event. The acceptance event is an unexpected departure from the traditional convention hall format for which they have spent months planning.' [Permalink]
Times (UK): Obama's Berlin visit sparks German row '(A) simmering row between the German Government and the local Berlin authorities could rob the Democratic politician of a photogenic moment at the Brandenburg Gate and derail his flagship tour of Europe this month.
The plan, Obama advisers have told Der Spiegel magazine, is to use the visit on July 24 to signal an imminent improvement in the transatlantic relationship.' [Permalink]
Salon: Barack by the books 'The works that have influenced Obama illustrate that he would be the most literary president in recent memory -- and one likely to govern from the center.' [Permalink]
Ambinder: Invesco Field announcement 'monday' An official announcement that Obama will accept his candidacy not at Denver's Pepsi Center but at the nearby Invesco Field at Mile High stadium (which can accommodate at least 75,000) will come Monday, according to Marc Ambinder's sources. [Permalink]
Spiegel: Obama may speak in front of Brandenburg Gate Obama is likely to visit Europe before the end of July, and Berlin Senate has reportedly been asked whether Obama can speak in Pariser Platz, in front of the Brandenburg Gate, where President Reagan gave his famous 'Tear down this wall' speech. [Permalink]
NYT: Rising Convention Costs and Delays Worry Democrats "For all Senator Barack Obama's success at raising money and generating excitement among voters, he faces a daunting challenge as he prepares to claim the nomination in August: a Democratic convention effort marred by costly setbacks and embarrassing delays." [Permalink]
CNN: Why Europe loves Barack Obama Today's Eurobamania, by way of CNN: "Leaving Amsterdam, I was slightly alarmed when the security agent inspecting my bags asked me to step aside. The agent, a Dutchman of African descent, leaned over the table and asked me in a lowered voice: 'Do you think Barack Obama really has a chance to win the election?'" [Permalink]
Friday, July 4
WSJ: Can Barack Buy the Presidency? Karl Rove makes his point about money and how it relates to the Obama campaign. "Mr. Obama may be overreaching by running ads in (...) states Republicans won by comfortable margins in recent years. It would require a shift of (a size that rarely happens). Big shifts do occur – witness West Virginia in 2000, which swung more than 20 points between 1996 (when Bill Clinton carried the state) and 2000 (when George W. Bush did) – but these require sharp contrasts on big issues, not just money." [Permalink]
HuffPo: Europe is Obamaland: Senator's Remarkable Popularity Transcends Borders More swooning on the Old Continent, with an ominous nod at the Kerry campaign: "Europe, and much of the world, awaits the coming of Obama, and a political dawn to sweep away the long night of the Bush era. Of course, it may only be a matter of time before Republicans start accusing Obama of being, 'too French.'" [Permalink]
Slate: Political predictions markets explained "The idea behind political prediction markets is simple. Lots of people wager on the outcome of political campaigns: Who's going to be the Democratic presidential nominee? Will the Republicans take back the House? And when the votes are counted, the winning bettors collect." [Permalink]
Newsweek: Inside Obama's 50-state strategy "Let's do the math. If Obama holds all the Kerry states, he's at 252. Add Iowa for 259. Add a win in Virginia or North Carolina, 'and it's game, set, match,' says Plouffe." [Permalink]
RCP: Obama's 50-state strategy "If everything goes according to the campaign's plan, Barack Obama should win all of the states John Kerry carried in 2004, plus a few that haven't been seriously challenged by a Democratic candidate in years." [Permalink]
Sunday, June 22
NYT: Leader of the Pack Pamphleteer Tony Horwitz pleads with Barack to get back into the habit: "To capture voters in coal country and smokestack towns, he needs an old-fashioned coffin nail." [Permalink]
Thursday, June 19
NYT: Comparing Bush and McCain "Democrats say that electing John McCain would bring the equivalent of a third Bush term, while Republicans say these charges are just political spin. Here is where Mr. McCain and Mr. Bush stand on key issues." [Permalink]
The Bush Years; C.E.O., U.S.A. Lest we forget: a prescient assessment of a dawning George W. Bush administration, a week before Inauguration Day, 2001. [Permalink]
NYT: At the Brokered Convention Amusing "What If?" fantasy By William Safire musing on the possibility of delegate mayhem on the floor of the Democratic convention... of 2004. [Permalink]
In support of Obama, European leaders break protocol In many democratic nations, any outspoken involvement in an ongoing foreign election is appropriately taboo. However, some European politicians seem to have some trouble hiding their Obamania. After candid sort-of-endorsements from Britain, Holland and Italy, here's a recent example from Germany. [Permalink]
Seriously, golf gear? The McCain campaign website currently has four tabs: Decision center; General Election; Obama & Iraq; and... golf gear. [Permalink]
NYT: How different groups voted Another cool thingamajig from the Times; this one interactively shows demographic groups' voting patterns in the Dem primaries. [Permalink]
Malkin: Where's the Michelle Obama tape? After I myself got a little swept away in the snowballing rumor mill, here's a sober view - from a very conservative blogger, no less. Michelle Malkin: "Larry Johnson, the main source of the rumors, is not, not, not to be trusted." [Permalink]
Is a "Whitey" tape about to be released? Weeks-old rumors on the purported existence of video showing Michelle Obama engaged in slighting language against white people - at the Trinity church pulpit, some claim - have resurfaced today: conservative blogs are atwitter with speculation that the alleged footage's release is imminent, and word is that Neil Cavuto will address the issue Monday on Fox News at 4 PM ET.
Larry Johnson, formerly with the CIA and a strong critic of Senator Obama, writes that he will post "news" on the tape Monday 9 AM ET on his blog. And lastly, for what it's worth, here's video of George Stephanopolous hinting at a possible event along these lines.
Electicker does not usually post on rumors and passes no judgment on the content or even existence of this purported footage before it is actually released. However, the sudden intensity of the speculation is such that just putting this out there seems warranted. Still, as always, take it with a grain and salt, and we'll see how things develop. [Permalink]
TPM: Obama's Route To The White House In the vein of the Salon article, Talking Points Memo examines Obama's electoral challenges, focusing especially on scenarios where Obama would carry most of the 2004 Kerry states, but lose either Florida or Ohio. [Permalink]
Florida & Michigan - how we got here Ed Espinoza runs down the timeline of how two states' race to the start of the primary season became a drag toward the end of it. (Note: I believe Saturday's RBC meeting will at least be carried on C-SPAN, but I'm not quite sure.) [Permalink]
Tuesday, May 27
The Note: Thinking About Tomorrow Well-written state-of-the-race overview. "Don't expect too much at Saturday's Rules & Bylaws Committee meeting. Michael Tackett writes: 'The DNC already decided that Florida and Michigan should be penalized [...]. If the party is to stand for anything, it will uphold its rules.'" [Permalink]
Monday, May 26
Castro: The empire’s hypocritical politics [English] In Granma, Fidel Castro criticizes Obama's Cuba speech, but sounds almost wistful doing so: "What did he say in his speech in Miami, this man who is doubtless, from the social and human points of view, the most progressive candidate to the U.S. presidency?" [Permalink]
Newsweek: A Memo to Sen. Obama "The good news is that you have all but won the nomination. The bad news, if we are willing to face reality, is that the country - some parts of it, anyway - may not be ready to elect a black president of the United States." [Permalink]
Is Barack Obama Muslim? An in-depth, thorough investigation of the question that has been bugging observers since well before the start of the primary season. Be warned though, some might find this a lengthy read. [Permalink]
Hillary's bicycle kid speaks You've probably heard Clinton's story about the 11 year-old who sold his bicycle to donate to her campaign, but wow, does he talk like a politician. [Permalink]
Richard Cohen: Why Clinton Fights On "A man cannot play the victim, especially a sexual one. I am tempted to say it would be unmanly, but that's not exactly what I mean. I mean it does not befit a leader. The Internet would sizzle with ridicule. [...] Nothing dies on YouTube." [Permalink]
Time: What Obama Owes the Clintons Senator Obama largely owes his unique opportunity in the current climate to President Clinton's policies in the 1990s, Time posits. [Permalink]
Friday, May 16
Politico: Obama's endorsement timing From Richardson after the Wright affair to Edwards right after being clobbered in WV, Obama's campaign knows when to roll out major endorsements - while keeping a steady trickle of superdelegates going as media background noise. [Permalink]
The Hill: Do Senators want to be VP? The Hill asked all 97 senators who are not running for president the same question: "If you were asked, would you accept an offer to be the VP nominee?" [Permalink]
NYT: Edwards endorses Obama "There is one man who knows in his heart that it is time to tear down that wall and make one America, Barack Obama." [Permalink]
Tuesday, May 13
Sen. Clinton’s Remarks in Charleston, W.Va. "[O]ur nominee will be stronger for having campaigned long and hard, building enthusiasm and excitement, hearing your stories, and answering your questions. And I will work my heart out for the nominee of the Democratic Party to make sure we have a Democratic president." Partial video. [Permalink]
OMG Maps I keep looking for a Dem vote-by-county primary map; there's one on Wikipedia but it's no longer linked from the article. DKos's Meng Bomin totally geeked out and brought us a truckload of useful maps. [Permalink]
fivethirtyeight: WV Preview Interesting writeup predicts +39 margin and 105,000 votes for Clinton and a 19-9 delegate split. (I've been on the fence about fivethirtyeight, myself, and it's a bit of a statistics-fest, but hey, he got NC & IN right.) [Permalink]
CJR: Election Mania... in Europe Columbia Journalism Review observes a curious interest in the US Presidential elections exhibited by some Europeans - more specifically: by the Dutch. [Permalink]
NYT: Electoral map Quick visual primer on battleground states and their performance in recent elections. [Permalink]
Politico: Under Clinton's rules, Obama still wins "[...] Obama can fully accept [...] Clinton's terms on Michigan and Florida and still win a majority of pledged Democratic delegates on June 1, allowing him to lay claim to the nomination under the New York senator's own rules." [Permalink]
Swamp: McCain paints Obama's portrait "I do not seek the presidency on the presumption that I am blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need." [Permalink]
Video: Obama walks through the Capitol Oddly satisfying three-minute video of the Senator walking through the Capitol's Statuary Hall and Great Rotunda inside a bubble of overexcited reporters. (Wait a minute, his day job is on the other side!) Barely intelligible, but excerpts here. [Permalink]
The Five Mistakes Clinton Made I was all prepared to hate on the hindsightedness of this, but taken as a "what went wrong" rather than a "what did she do wrong", it's really informative. [Permalink]
Rove: it's Obama, warts and all In WSJ, a look ahead at a McCain-Obama general. Thoroughly Rovian yet insightful. "Almost everything we think we know right now will be revised and even overturned during the next six months." [Permalink]
Politico: Clinton fate hangs in the balance "None of the remaining six states hold caucuses, [...] where the Obama campaign's organizational strength and savvy shines. Four of the six are closed primaries, which neutralizes Obama's strength among independents and Republicans. None have African-American populations above 10 percent - a key Obama constituency. And two rank among the top 10 states with populations aged 65 or older - a group Clinton runs well with." [Permalink]
New Yorker: No Endgame "[Clinton's] campaign seems to have entered a new, almost mystical phase, in which the number of votes received or delegates pledged no longer matters. 'We don’t think this is just going to be about some numerical metric,' Geoff Garin, one of her chief strategists, recently told the Washington Post." [Permalink]
NYT: Ruthlessness and Grit Seen in Clinton's Style "She has learned how to be ruthless," said Robert B. Reich, an Obama supporter who served as Mr. Clinton’s secretary of labor[...]. "I doubt that it came to her naturally, but she has learned." [Permalink]
HuffPo: Clinton Camp's "Nuclear Option" "Hillary Clinton's campaign has a secret weapon to build its delegate count, but her top strategists say privately that any attempt to deploy it would require a sharp (and by no means inevitable) shift in the political climate within Democratic circles by the end of this month." [Permalink]
Politicalmaps.org: Indiana The sources can be a bit random at times, but Politicalmaps.org's maps are always informative. Here's one that may be helpful to those looking to know more about Indiana demographics (but take the projections with a sizable grain of salt). Also, North Carolina. [Permalink]
NYT: A Strained Wright-Obama Bond Finally Snaps "[H]e was aware that, shorn of their South Side Chicago context, the words and cadences of a politically left-wing black minister could have a very problematic echo. [...] Then came Mr. Obama's announcement in early 2007 that he would be running for president. Mr. Obama had invited Mr. Wright to deliver the invocation at the event in Springfield. But [...] Rolling Stone had just published a profile of Mr. Obama that included some colorful snippets from the pastor's sermons." [Permalink]
Youtube: Hillary vs coffee machine They say there are three major narratives: human vs. other humans, human vs. him- or herself, and human vs. machine. Guess which story this one tells. (She would have gone for a Red Bull instead, had she known what that is.) [Permalink]
Senate: McCain is a natural-born citizen. It's a legal non-issue, really, but still interesting to see the Senate, by way of Sen. McCaskill et al. (including co-sponsors Sens. Clinton of NY and Obama of IL, by the way) affirm McCain on this somewhat ill-defined concept from the Constitution. [Permalink]
Politico: Clinton regains her self-confidence Though she's still betting on some major game-changing event, Clinton's spirits are buoyed by favorable polls, better fundraising and a rattled-looking opponent. Nonetheless, the math is still against her. [Permalink]
NYT: Indiana voting rules exotica Indiana has an open Democratic primary, meaning Republicans and independents can vote too. *But*, you need to have voted for more Democratic than Republican candidates in the last general election. [Permalink]
NYT: Will Edwards endorse? "Theories abound: They'll endorse before the [NC] primary. Or after there is a nominee. Or Mr. Edwards will endorse Mr. Obama and Mrs. Edwards will endorse Mrs. Clinton. Or none of the above." [Permalink]
Monday, April 28
Politico: Obama team remains unshaken "After Sen. Barack Obama's third major primary loss and endless media coverage dedicated to dissecting the apparent weaknesses of his candidacy, one of the most striking elements of his campaign this week was what's missing: any hint of internal upheaval." [Permalink]
TNR: Plouffe Piece "One of Plouffe's most underappreciated accomplishments began, fittingly enough, with a spreadsheet. After New Hampshire, Plouffe realized that, if the campaign was going to become a battle of attrition, he needed to convince onlookers that the pledged-delegate total was sacrosanct." A profile of the Obama campaign's geek-in-chief. [Permalink]
New Yorker: Bill vs. Barack Ryan Lizza's dispatch from President Clinton's campaign trail. Guess what: an adviser is quoted as saying, "He doesn’t like Obama." [Permalink]
Transcript: Obama on Fox News Sunday Leap year or not, Chris Wallace had some pressing policy issues to discuss, like angry pastors, death penalty-wielding pro-lifers, sixties radicals, and flag pins. [Permalink]
Newsweek: Only in America Evan Thomas, Holly Bailey and Richard Wolffe explore the gap with working class voters Obama needs to close. [Permalink]
HuffPo: Electoral Map Favors Democrats "A downtrodden economy, the war in Iraq and a public call for change have created an Electoral College outlook and a political environment filled with extraordinary opportunity for the Democrats and enormous challenge for the GOP nominee-in-waiting." A look at which states might be in play in November by Liz Sidoti. [Permalink]
Media Jump Ship from Obama To Clinton I was slightly skeptical about this being more than just a passing artifact of Clinton's PA win, but the HuffPo's political editor Thomas Edsall seems to make a convincing case, citing everyone from Cillizza, TNR and the Times of London to Karl Rove. (But we linked the Rove article yesterday already, and twice just feels icky.) Ambinder seems to agree with Edsall. [Permalink]
ChiTrib: Obama plans major drive to register voters Obama: "That's why I'm so proud that today our campaign announced a massive volunteer-led voter registration drive in all 50 states to help ensure every single eligible voter takes part in this election." Details to follow in a Friday conference call. [Permalink]
NYT: The Low Road to Victory "The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive result on Tuesday, was even meaner, more vacuous, more desperate, and more filled with pandering than the mean, vacuous, desperate, pander-filled contests that preceded it." [Permalink]
Trail: Obama Predicts a Race Through June "I've come to the conclusion that this race will continue until the last primary or caucus vote is cast, and that's not that far away,", Obama told reporters. [Permalink]
Page: Obama on the Daily Show Obama said Clinton's tough campaigning did him 'a favor': "She has put me through the paces," he said. If he wins the nomination, he said, everything's "going to be old news" by the general election. [Permalink]
Newsweek: Adios, Sound Bites & Fat Cats '[W]hen I read an advance text of Obama's Philadelphia speech on race, I told my wife that it was well written but contained no eight- to 15-second sound bites to counteract the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr.'s greatest hits. [...] It turns out the Obama campaign planned it that way.' [Permalink]
PolWire: Bonus Quote of the Day Obama: 'Either Democrat would be better than John McCain. And all three of us would be better than George Bush.' A bit of bigger-picture perspective from the Senator from Illinois. [Permalink]
Saturday, April 19
Torrent: The Colbert Report, April 17 A season high point featuring Clinton, Edwards and Obama. As a rare exception, a torrent link - just because it's a must-see, for those who wouldn't catch it otherwise. [Permalink]
TIME: Dems Play Trivial Pursuit "What's troubling is the gap between the magnitude of our challenges and the smallness of our politics — the ease with which we are distracted by the petty and trivial." [Permalink]
Wednesday, April 16
Caucus: Dem debate liveblog Highlights:
"Interestingly, Obama, who has been defensive so far during this debate, pulls back from the back-and-forth over this embarrassment for Clinton and says it's important that they not get 'caught up with gaffes' that we miss that this election is 'a defining moment' in the nation's history."
"Clinton, given equal time, brings up the 'B'-word (bitterness), which Obama has been avoiding all night. Then she tosses in Farrakhan and Hamas and it turns into a big stew of negative associations for Mr. Obama." [Permalink]
Superdelegates: A guide to the undecided "'There are no undecided superdelegates,' explained a Democratic superdelegate who asked to remain anonymous. 'Or at least there are very few of them. Most undeclared supers are just that, undeclared.'" [Permalink]
Saturday, March 29
Noonan: Getting Mrs. Clinton In the WSJ, Peggy Noonan asks, "What, really, is Mrs. Clinton doing? She is having the worst case of cognitive dissonance in the history of modern politics." [Permalink]
WaPo: Obama's Internet strategy In February, the Obama campaign spent 10 times as much on online advertising as Clinton and more than 20 times as much as McCain. [Permalink]
NYT Op-Ed: Hillary's "Long Defeat" "For another three months, we'll have the Carvilles likening the Obamaites to Judas and former generals accusing Clintonites of McCarthyism [...] We'll have campaign aides blurting 'blue dress' and only-because-he's-black references as they let slip their private contempt." [Permalink]
Sunday, March 23
PA voter registration up dramatically Ahead of Monday's deadline, Democratic enrollment is up by 110,000, with more than 58,000 changing affiliation to Democratic. Dem primary turnout in '04 was 789,882. [Permalink]
Friday, March 21
Politico: The Clinton Myth "One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning. " [Permalink]
FL Dems: No revote "We researched every potential alternative process – from caucuses to county conventions to mail-in elections – but no plan could come anywhere close to being viable in Florida." [Permalink]
Obama aide: Hillary a "monster" "'She is a monster, too – that is off the record – she is stooping to anything,' [Samantha] Power said, hastily trying to withdraw her remark." [Permalink]
RNC snaps up domain names The RNC has been registering election-related domains, even pre-emptively cybersquatting potential anti-McCain domains. [Permalink]
Times (UK): Obama may pick Republicans for cabinet "Earlier Obama had told the audience [...] that he intended to follow the example of his hero, President Abraham Lincoln, and appoint a cabinet of the talents, irrespective of party labels." [Permalink]
Thursday, February 28
TNR: NYT almost endorsed Obama "The divisions within the Gray Lady's editorial board mirrored the deep divide that has split Democrats in this tightly contested campaign." [Permalink]
Sen. Clinton's Delegate Spin Site Delegate Hub gives the rundown on the delegate count. Don't worry: it's "Paid for by Hillary Clinton for President" (scroll down), but "Hillary Clinton for President is not responsible for the content of any external websites". So it can't even remotely be slanted, right? [Permalink]
Actually, I Think We Can "I suspect, though, that part of it might be the assumption that idealism is necessarily woolly and misty-eyed and all about singing Kumbaya, while realism is necessarily cynical and disillusioned." [Permalink]
Superdelegate Transparency Project The Superdelegate Transparency Project compares primary results with superdelegates' current pledges or endorsements and their eventual votes. [Permalink]
FL & MI Democratic caucuses? Reports say the DNC is asking the Dems in Florida and Michigan to hold caucuses to ensure the states' delegates to be seated at the convention come summer. [Permalink]
NYT: Obama is a Mac, Clinton a PC "In the long run, however, Mr. Lessig believes that it is the ability to motivate the electorate that matters, not simple matters of style. And he’s a Mac user from way back." [Permalink]
CFP: Super Tuesday info Poll closing times, demographics, Nov '04 results breakdown, primary/caucus & delegate info, you name it. [Permalink]
RCP: Robert Novak - Dem. Stalemate "[The] unexpected reality [of a stalemate] is produced by Obama's appeal, Clinton fatigue and extreme proportional representation adopted by the Democratic Party." [Permalink]
HuffPo: Obama vs. the Clock "If the election were held last Tuesday, Clinton would have walked away with it. If it were to be held a week from this Tuesday, Obama would waltz to victory." [Permalink]
Caucus: Obama's Super Bowl Ad Meanwhile, Barack is watching the game over beer and chili with his Secret Service entourage. "Who can compete with Budweiser?" [Permalink]
Gallup: Clinton only 6% over Obama Obama has now cut the gap with Hillary Clinton to 6 percentage points among Democrats nationally in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking three-day average. [Permalink]
Tuesday, January 29
AP: Obama gives Rezko money to charity Obama to donate contributions from "Chicago businessman whose past connections to the Democratic presidential candidate have created a distraction". [Permalink]
Beliefnet: Obama is the Dems' "Reagan" "[I]f this man gets his party's nomination, he's going to be the next president. By a landslide. [...] If I were a Republican, I'd be very, very afraid. Oh wait, I am a Republican." [Permalink]
Salon: Bush's dismal state "Beginning with the president's first formal State of the Union in 2002, each year he has stood before Congress with a lower approval rating than the year before." [Permalink]
CNN: Awkward moment The two Senators went to great lengths to avoid acknowledging each other in the Chamber. [Permalink]
Flickr | Obamaganda You know it's 2008 when meticulously composed campaign promo photos like these pop up in the feeds next to every other schmuck's shots. [Permalink]
DKos | NV Voting irregularities "[A] voter registration list only in Spanish, and only with Hillary supporters on it. Obama supporters later found the registration list with the rest of the people--in the garbage can of the ladies restroom." [Permalink]
Slate | Map the Correspondent Cool feature from Slate using Google Maps. Nice if you don't already have a bunch of candidates to stalk, I guess. [Permalink]
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