Friday, November 7
Thursday, November 6
Wednesday, November 5
NYT: The Next President -- ESSENTIAL
"This is one of those moments in history when it is worth pausing to reflect on the basic facts:
An American with the name Barack Hussein Obama, the son of a white woman and a black man he barely knew, raised by his grandparents far outside the stream of American power and wealth, has been elected the 44th president of the United States." [Permalink]
Politico: Why Obama won
"Obama won on his own terms, strategically and symbolically. He rolled up a series of contested states, from Colorado to Virginia, long out of Democratic reach. And his victory reflected the accuracy of his vision of a reshaped country. Racism, much discussed, turned out to be a footnote, and African-American turnout was not unusually high. Instead, Obama drew his strength from an array of racially mixed, growing areas around cities such as Orlando, Fla., Washington, Indianapolis and Columbus, Ohio, on his way to at least 334 electoral votes." [Permalink]
Politico: The Obama Revolution
"The Democrats’ moment with Obama, as a brilliant campaigner confronts the challenges of governance, could also prove fleeting. For now, the results -- in their breadth across a continent -- suggest seismic change that goes far beyond Obama's 4 percent margin in the popular vote. " [Permalink]
Tuesday, November 4
The Caucus: Endgame: Nov. 3
Senator Barack Obama’s sweeping exploration of race in America ['A More Perfect Union'], delivered in March, in the midst of the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. controversy. More than 5.1 million views, despite its length -- 37 minutes, 39 seconds -- marking YouTube's emergence as a vehicle for substantive discourse, not just silly clips. [Permalink]
Monday, November 3
Time: A Long Campaign, And a Changed Barack Obama
"Of course, the Obama campaign will be remembered for spectacles like Obama's stadium speech at the Democratic convention and his equally massive appearance in Berlin. But in fact, his campaign just as often deliberately chose not to maximize Obama's crowd appeal. During the primaries, where retail politics was premium, they focused on house parties and ice cream socials, concerned that Obama's celebrity status might put off the famously demanding Iowa and New Hampshire voters." [Permalink]
Sunday, November 2
Observer (UK): Barack Obama's impressive road to the White House
"People do lie to pollsters. Pollsters can screw up their measures of voting intention. Voting intentions can change in the frenetic last furlong before election day. The man himself constantly cautions the crowds at his final rallies to take nothing for granted. But the world now expects that the world will get what it wants: President Barack Obama." [Permalink]
Salon: Obama's winning argument
"What Obama needs to explain, over and over again, is that Democratic economic programs have succeeded in promoting growth precisely because they distribute national wealth more widely than the Republican tradition of trickle-down. The numbers have told the story for decades -- and the statistics detailing the Clinton administration's success and the Bush administration's failure have only reinforced the narrative." [Permalink]
Saturday, November 1
NYT: Obama is up; liberals fret
"'I wrote an e-mail to a friend and said, ''I’m afraid to put this in writing, but I’m really excited about the way this is going,''' Ms. Bellet said.
Within minutes, the phone rang; her friend was very worried about Mr. Obama’s prospects. ''Don’t say that!'' the friend said. ''No, no, no. What were you thinking? We can’t go there yet!''" [Permalink]
Friday, October 31
Thursday, October 30
FiveThirtyEight: Election Night Preview with Dan Rather
Generations meet: the venerable Dan Rather interviews this year's internet rockstar, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on what to expect come Tuesday. Killer quote: if Indiana comes up too close to call, it will be "an early night" for McCain. Great video. [Permalink]
Donklephant: Another Sucker for Obama
"This afternoon, I voted. I cast a ballot that was about 80% Republican, including votes for my Republican Senator and Republican Representative.
But for president, I voted for Barack Obama." [Permalink]
Wednesday, October 29
National Journal: GOP's Horror Sequel Is Almost A Wrap
"For a time it was thought that perhaps some huge foreign policy event or crisis could refocus public attention away from the current 100 percent concentration on the economy. Perhaps Russia invading the Ukraine, North Korean firing a missile off the coast of Japan, Israel deciding to take out a nuclear facility in Iran or something else might dilute the unrelenting rain on the heads of Republicans. But now, even an apparent U.S. special forces raid into Syria is hardly drawing notice. This cake looks baked." [Permalink]
PhysOrg: Astronauts To Vote From Space
"Commander Edward Michael Fincke and Flight Engineer and Science Officer Greg Chamitoff are living and working onboard the International Space Station. Though they are 220 miles above Earth and orbiting at 17,500 miles per hour, they will still be able to participate in the upcoming election. A 1997 bill passed by Texas legislators sets up a technical procedure for astronauts -- nearly all of whom live in Houston -- to vote from space. " [Permalink]
Tuesday, October 28
Marist: Clinton fence, mended
The latest Marist shows a little closure on the supposed Clinton rift: 62% of registered voters in New York State say Senator Hillary Clinton is doing either an excellent or good job, and according to this blog, she gets a 91% positive approval rating from African-Americans. [Permalink]
Crowley: Still Sweating
Crowley isn't relaxing just yet: "My immediate concern is twofold: That McCain is getting some traction with his liberal/socialist/redistributionist charge--the WaPo tracker shows McCain narrowing the gap on the economy over the last week--and, in light of this, that Obama is striking his high-note a few days too early." [Permalink]
Time: Why the New Virginia Is Leaning Toward Obama
"The national headquarters of John McCain's campaign are in northern Virginia, near the condo where he stays when he is working across the river in Washington. But McCain didn't get around to actually campaigning in the most pivotal part of this pivotal state -- exurban Prince William County -- until the weekend of Oct. 18. That's when he realized he was running about 10 points behind in a state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1964." [Permalink]
Nat'l Review: John McCain -- The Agony of a Gadfly
Another pre-post-mortem: "This is the McCain paradox: No other Republican candidate had a character and background -- as a courageously independent spirit -- better suited to making the presidential campaign competitive this year. But perhaps no Republican candidate was so poorly suited to the task of running a presidential race." [Permalink]
Monday, October 27
Time: Against All Odds, McCain Still Sees a Final Comeback
"When Bob Dole realized he wasn't going to win against President Bill Clinton in 1996, Dole started campaigning in states that were of little help to him but where he could assist Republicans trying to hold on to their majorities in Congress. That kind of pivot hasn't happened in this race, though over the weekend conservative writer David Frum openly called on McCain to do just that for the good of the party." [Permalink]
New Yorker: McCain has run out of ideas
"The problem for John McCain, Sarah Palin, and the Republican Party is that the bottom was scraped clean long before it dropped out. Back when the polls were nip and tuck [...] Obama had already been accused of betraying the troops, wanting to teach kindergartners all about sex, favoring infanticide, and being a friend of terrorists and terrorism. What was left?" (Spoiler: it's 'socialism'.) [Permalink]
The Next Right: The History Of One Party America
Matthew Gagnon details the periods in recent history where Congress and the White House were held by the same party.
He also advises Republicans to "stock up on your whiskey and vodka for November 4th, but try not to drink yourself into a coma". Wait, vodka? Isn't that a socialist drink? [Permalink]
Sunday, October 26
TNR: The Ballot Blues
Leon Wieseltier's cautious endorsement: "I dread the prospect of Obama's West Wing education in foreign policy: even when he spoke well about these matters in the debates, it all sounded so new to him, so light. He must not mistake the global adulation of his person with the end of anti-Americanism." [Permalink]
Observer (UK): America is showing Europe the way again - ESSENTIAL
Keith Richburg: "[I]t's difficult, if not impossible, to imagine a Barack Obama emerging in Europe soon. [...] What's more, many Europeans can't even bring themselves to call their minority residents what they are - citizens. They are still often referred to as 'immigrants' or 'outsiders', even if they were born in the country, speak no other language, know no other home." [Permalink]
Stumper: McCain's Closing Argument
"After struggling for weeks to present a coherent case against Barack Obama, John McCain has finally found a closing argument -- and he's sticking to it. The surprising thing, at least in light of his earlier sallies, may be that it's worth sticking to." [Permalink]
Saturday, October 25
ABC News: Breaking Down the Battleground States
"ABC News has looked at several factors to assess how those electoral votes may fall on Election Day -- including reporting from the campaigns themselves, national party officials, outside groups, House and Senate party committees, state parties and polls. Analysis shows that Republican candidate John McCain's support in these states -- all of which went to George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004 -- may not be enough." [Permalink]
Friday, October 24
Larry David: Waiting for Nov. 4th
"The one concession I've made to maintain some form of sanity is that I've taken to censoring my news, just like the old Soviet Union. The citizenry (me) only gets to read and listen to what I deem appropriate for its health and well-being. Sure, there are times when the system breaks down. Michele Bachmann got through my radar this week, right before bedtime. That's not supposed to happen."
Curb your enthusiasm, Larry. [Permalink]
RCP: Long National Nightmare -- ESSENTIAL
Steven Stark shares a, well, stark crystal ball scenario where that one guy wins, you know, that Senator from Arizona. Funny in a way, but rooted in reality -- of course McCain can still win, and Stark points to real-world articles and publications to lend his dream emphasis. [Permalink]
Thursday, October 23
RCP: Battleground Virginia
Kyle Trygstad on Virginia's role as a likely 2008 bellwether: "If McCain is losing Virginia on election night we can all go to bed early." [Permalink]
Politico: GOP blame game
In an article that sees John F. Harris, Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin team up, the 'circular firing squad' McCain camp (ouch!) is described. [Permalink]
Time: Four Ways McCain Went Wrong
Spoiler: He Drove into a House Republican Wall; Sarah Palin Needed a Crash Course She Never Got; He Stuck with Attacks That Depended on Dominating the News Cycles; He Stopped Having Fun. [Permalink]
ABC/WaPo: Vote by 2004 outcome
A nice couple of pie charts (scroll down) buried in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll: the poll numbers broken down by states won by Kerry and Bush, respectively, in 2004. [Permalink]
Wednesday, October 22
Tuesday, October 21
Republican Jewish Coalition ad: "Concerned about Obama?" -- ESSENTIAL
Jewish interest group ad reportedly airing in Florida calls Obama's judgment into question; but, tellingly, does not call on the viewer for voting McCain. The only call to action in the ad is to phone Obama's senatorial office and plead with him not to sit down with Ahmedinejad, stopping just short of adding, "when he's President." [Permalink]
CNN: Many in McCain camp think NM, IA, CO are "gone"
In a must-see clip from CNN Monday night, John King says most in the top of the McCain campaign believe New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado are no longer worth fighting for. The remaining strategy is a risky push for Florida, Nevada and Pennsylvania. [Permalink]
Orlando Sentinel: GOP insiders: McCain's Florida campaign "botched", "Dukakis-like"
"One who has advised the McCain organization called it the 'most poorly run presidential campaign of the last 25 years. It's truly Dukakis-like,' referring to the hapless 1988 campaign of Democrat Michael Dukakis.
'They have absolutely no strategy for winning,' said the veteran operative, who did not want to be identified criticizing a candidate he supports. 'I see [...] no rhyme or reason to this campaign or its scheduling or its planning.'" [Permalink]
Monday, October 20
YouTube: The North Carolina Obama Straight Flip
Attention Tar Heels: in NC, voting for a straight party ticket doesn't include your vote for President. So choose your presidential vote, then a straight party ticket (if you want to), then flip the ballot for non-partisan races. This instructional video shows you how to do it for a straight Obama-Democratic vote. [Permalink]
Sunday, October 19
FOX News: McCain ready for potential Nov. 4 loss
McCain tells Chris Wallace: "Oh, sure. I mean, I don’t dwell on it. But look. I've had a wonderful life. I have to go back and live in Arizona, and be in the United States Senate representing them, and with a wonderful family, and daughters and sons that I'm so proud of, and a — and a life that's been blessed[.]" [Permalink]
Jonathan Martin: Nice timing
Martin notes that Obama's first appearance after the endorsement by General Powell is in Fayetteville, NC, a strong military town in a state where Obama is playing offense. [Permalink]
WaPo: The Speech That Could Close the Deal
David Ignatius: "he country is looking for two conflicting qualities in the next president -- change and stability. Obama certainly embodies the former. [...] The stability theme is a harder one for Obama, but it's likely to be crucial in bringing home the victory the pollsters are predicting. The country is frightened, more now than it was a few months ago. People want reassurance that Obama, for all his talk about change, isn't going to overturn the apple cart. A dream television spot in the final week would be a fireside chat between Obama and his sometime economic adviser Warren Buffett. That would close the deal, I suspect." [Permalink]
Saturday, October 18
NYT: Nov. 5, 2008
With a strong majority in both houses of Congress and up to three Supreme Court appointments, a President Obama could be one of the most powerful officeholders in recent history. [Permalink]
Weekly Standard: Sarah Palin's Future
What's in store for Gov. Palin if John McCain loses? And what if he wins?
Also, an interesting moment:
"I asked Palin whether she'd do things differently if she could repeat those weeks. She answered by silently mouthing 'yes.' When two aides--we were on a McCain-Palin bus with staff and security--said 'yes' aloud, she chimed in, 'Yes yes, yes, yes.'" [Permalink]
Friday, October 17
Ben Smith: Hating Obama
I try to refrain from posting these "Someone really, really doesn't like Obama" videos because, well, they are essentially incidents. And there can be found equal loons on the left as well. But this is a convincing sampling. And they really, really don't like Obama. [Permalink]
Video: Obama at the Al Smith Dinner (part 1)
Video from Obama's appearance at the Al Smith Dinner. Quotes:
"I love the Waldorf Astoria -- I hear that from the doorstep, you can see all the way to the Russian Tea Room."
"I was not born in a manger -- I was born on Krypton [...] and sent to save planet Earth." [Permalink]
LAT: Protestant Latinos favor Obama, poll says
"'The shift is a direct result of the immigration reform debacle,' said the Rev. Samuel Rodriguez, president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, one of the four groups sponsoring the survey. 'This is why Latino evangelicals are shifting to Barack Obama.'" [Permalink]
zombietime: The Left's Big Blunder
In-depth examination of the 'meta-campaign' surrounding the general probama atmosphere in mainstream media and blogs alike is slightly paranoid, but very thorough and makes some interesting points. [Permalink]
Salon: The 60th senator
The War Room speculates: If the supposed Democratic wave does extend to the Senate, where might a filibuster-proofing sixtieth seat come from? [Permalink]
GQ: Who It Takes
Great photo series of candidates, former candidates, spouses, advisors, and other campaign operatives. [Permalink]
Thursday, October 16
Pollster: Getting to 270 for McCain
"No matter what, McCain has a long shot to get to 270. But The road has to go through Ohio and Florida and both states are looking better for him than any others he must win. What he is doing in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is a mystery to me." [Permalink]
Wednesday, October 15
CS Mon: Obama gaining among rural voters
"Barack Obama is gaining support in the rural, conservative town of McArthur, Ohio, reflecting nationwide trends in which the Illinois senator has been consolidating support among independents and in some traditional Republican strongholds." [Permalink]
The Hill: Obama's first 100 days start early
Obama and Congress looking ahead: "Obama's unveiling of an economic recovery package on Monday that was closely coordinated with leaders on Capitol Hill amid the nation's financial crisis represented a passing of the torch for the Democratic Party." [Permalink]
Tuesday, October 14
FiveThirtyEight: "Dead girl, live boy territory"
"McCain now has to go on a run of his own, a large enough run to wipe at least 8 points off of Obama's lead, and perhaps more like 9 or 10 to cover his inferior position in the Electoral College and the votes that Obama is banking in early and absentee balloting. It is imperative that McCain does not just draw tomorrow night's debate, does not just win a victory on points, but emerges with a resounding victory, the sort that leaves the spin room gasping for air. Failing that, we are getting into dead girl, live boy territory." [Permalink]
The Trail: Questioning Obama
"It is hard to think of a new president who inherited such a rapidly altered landscape. Franklin Roosevelt inherited a country in crisis, but the crash on Wall Street began years before he was elected in 1932. The 44th president's world has been turned upside down in a matter of months, and literally on the eve of the election." [Permalink]
Wolfson: A PreMortem for The McCain Campaign
"[T]he choices that Senator McCain has made during this race will impact the margin of his defeat and the fortunes of other Republicans on the ballot. Today it's worth considering what Senator McCain could have done differently." [Permalink]
Quinnipiac: Obama battleground state leads 'may be insurmountable'
"'Sen. Obama's leads in these four battleground states are as large as they have been the entire campaign. Those margins may be insurmountable barring a reversal that has never been seen before in the modern era in which polling monitors public opinion throughout the campaign,' said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute." [Permalink]
Monday, October 13
WaPo: Examining the so-called "Bradley Effect" (2)
"Kohut theorizes that polling discrepancies do not come from respondents who lie, but from people who decline to participate in polls. That is a growing problem, with studies showing that as many as half the people contacted for polls refuse to participate." [Permalink]
NYT: Examining the so-called "Bradley Effect" (1)
"Pollsters and political scientists say concern about a Bradley effect -- some call it a Wilder effect or a Dinkins effect, and plenty call it a theory in search of data -- is misplaced. It obscures what they argue is the more important point: there are plenty of ways that race complicates polling." [Permalink]
Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.: Attacks on ACORN Based Not on Facts, But on Fear of 1.3 Million Poor People Registering
"Obviously it's not right for a fake 'Tony Romo' to be registered in Las Vegas, so someone was probably playing a not-very-funny joke, or trying to pad their registration numbers to get paid a little more money rather than doing the hard work in the hot Nevada sun that helping voters to register requires, or maybe a provocateur was setting up ACORN for some bad press. But remember the basic point--it's not voter fraud unless someone shows up at the voting booth on election day and tries to pass himself off as 'Tony Romo.' And who would try to do that? No one is going to be that stupid." [Permalink]
Sunday, October 12
RCP: Largest spread so far for Obama
Obama hits a spread of +7.6 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, making for his largest lead over McCain so far and besting his previous high of +7.5 points in late June. [Permalink]
Saturday, October 11
YouTube: Sen. McCain calls for respect (ESSENTIAL)
Ignore the somewhat gung-ho ("gotcha"?) framing by TPM: this short clip pulled from CNN will prove one of the most important and memorable moments of the campaign. The narrative for the endgame appears set:
Stock markets worldwide plunge, investor confidence is at a historic low, and Sen. Obama is soaring in the polls. Sen. McCain, apparently in an attempt to stem the tide, responds by casting doubts upon Obama's character and by openly calling for examination of his alleged ties to former Weatherman Bill Ayers (which are widely considered tenuous at best).
Meanwhile, McCain-Palin rallies take a turn for the grim as supporters grow more vocal and caustic in their opposition of Obama, with occasional (and isolated) threats to his person even reported in places. Now, the Obama-Biden campaign challenges McCain to "say it to [Obama's] face", and the McCain campaign's new tone meets with harsh criticism from the press.
Which brings us to the video: McCain apparently sees no option but to backtrack, and here reassures his audience of Obama's character and calls for respectful discourse.
Twenty-four days is a long time in politics, and it's important to keep in mind that Obama by no means has this in the bag. But watching this video, it's hard not to infer a sense of resignation in John McCain's voice. [Permalink]
Friday, October 10
Christopher Buckley: Obama could be a "great" leader (ESSENTIAL)
In a stellar -- if somewhat highfalutin -- endorsement, the late William F. Buckley's son lays out the justification for his first Democratic vote ever: calling McCain's recent attacks "mean-spirited and pointless" and strongly criticizing the Palin selection, the younger Buckley endorses Sen. Obama as a candidate of necessity.
"He is, it seems clear enough, what the historical moment seems to be calling for."
Essential reading. [Permalink]
Nat'l Journal: Going Obama's Way
"If voters stay focused on the economy, this contest could soon be out of McCain's reach. If their attention returns to national security in the next week or so, he could still come back." [Permalink]
WSJ: Presto, change-o!
"And now, America, we introduce the Great Obama! The world's most gifted political magician! A thing of wonder. A thing of awe. Just watch him defy politics, economics, even gravity!" [Permalink]
Thursday, October 9
David Frum: Going negative won't save McCain now
"Anybody who imagines that an election can be won under these circumstances by banging on about William Ayers and Jeremiah Wright is -- to put it mildly -- severely under-estimating the electoral importance of pocketbook issues." [Permalink]
Tuesday, October 7
Monday, October 6
NYT: Obama - Palin
With Republicans fantasizing about Sen. McCain ditching Gov. Palin in a final Hail Mary pass, Frank Rich suggest that if Palin is the GOP's "last hope for victory", he should flip the order of the ticket. Palin-McCain '08! [Permalink]
Sunday, October 5
Saturday, October 4
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